SMU Data and Models
Steel Mill Lead Times: Mixed Readings
Written by Tim Triplett
December 5, 2019
Mill lead times for spot orders of flat rolled steel may be starting to level out after lengthening week after week since early November. The latest data shows slightly longer lead times for cold rolled and galvanized products, but slightly shorter lead times for hot rolled, Galvalume and plate. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level. The longer the lead time, the busier the mill.
The average lead time for hot rolled steel is now at more than four and a half weeks, cold rolled is nearly six and a half weeks and coated steels are around seven weeks. Plate lead times are at four and a half weeks, according to data gathered by Steel Market Update this week.
Reporting the change in average lead times since mid-November, hot rolled is now at 4.63 weeks, down from 4.70 weeks. The average lead time for Galvalume is down to 6.89 weeks from 7.13 weeks. Lead times for spot orders of plate steel are down to 4.50 weeks from 4.56 weeks. Moving the opposite direction was cold rolled, now up to 6.33 weeks from 6.04 weeks, and galvanized, up to 7.18 weeks from 6.94 weeks. Except for plate, lead times for all steel products are still longer than they were at this time last year.
The series of price hikes announced by the mills in late October and early November pulled some buyers into the market ahead of the rising prices, pushing out lead times. Steel Market Update estimates the current hot rolled price at $555 per ton, up approximately $75 since October. Do the slight downturns in the average lead times of hot rolled and some other products suggest the price increases may be losing momentum? It’s certainly too soon to tell, but worth watching.
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.
Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Current Sentiment tumbles on tariffs, uncertainty, soft demand
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices moved in opposing directions this week. Our Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index dropped to one of the lowest levels recorded in over five years, while Future Buyers’ Sentiment inched higher.
SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Past survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if […]
SMU Survey: Buyers report little change in sheet and plate lead times
Steel buyers report steady lead times for sheet and plate products, a soft-sideways trend we've seen since May.
SMU Survey: Mills remain flexible on pricing, buyers say
The majority of steel buyers responding to our market survey this week continue to say that mills are negotiable on new spot order prices. Negotiation rates have remained high since May.
Service centers: Mill orders improve in July
SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) moved higher in July after rebounding the month prior. The shift comes after mill orders declined from March through May.