Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
February 14, 2020
We will begin our mid-February flat rolled and plate steel market trends analysis at 8 a.m. on Monday. Currently we are inviting approximately 560 individuals to participate in the market questionnaire, which takes about 4-8 minutes to complete. If you receive an invitation, please take a few minutes to provide your insights as they are truly appreciated and provide important data for us regarding market sentiment, demand, inventories, price negotiations, steel prices and more. If you would like to be added to the invitation list, please contact us at info@SteelMarketUpdate.com
On Thursday, we shared an overview of the 2020 SMU Steel Summit Conference agenda. If you did not see Thursday evening’s issue of Steel Market Update, you can find the agenda on our website. We also published some of the “keys” regarding this our 10th SMU Steel Summit Conference. Those were also published in Thursday’s newsletter and you can find them on our blog on our website.
As you can see by our agenda, we have an exceptional program covering market forecasts, price forecasts, global and North American economic forecasts, conversations with steel mill CEOs, a steel buyers’ perspective panel, hedging workshop, AI workshop, trade panel, mill costing and how the mills need to deal with CO2 emissions, how to attract and maintain young people into your company, what to make of the political landscape and how it will affect you and the economy, and more…
We are now over 200 registrations and counting… only 1,000 to go. You can register by clicking here or by going to the website address www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/Events/Steel-Summit.
We have a limited number of sponsorship slots for the SMU Steel Summit Conference available. If you would like your name associated with he largest flat rolled and plate steel conference, one that attracts close to 1,200 executives (most being decision makers) from manufacturing, distribution, steel mills, trading companies, toll processors and companies that supply products to those industries, please contact Jill Waldman at 303-570-6570 or by email: Jill@SteelMarketUpdate.com
Jill can also assist you if you would like to exhibit your company’s products. We do have a number of spots left for exhibitors as we have doubled the amount of exhibition space this year.
Our SMU Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals Workshop which will be held on March 31 through April 1, 2020, in Merrillville, Ind., is about one-half full. We will tour the NLMK Portage steel mill as part of the steel making portion of the instruction. NLMK is a “mini” mill, which means they produce steel by melting ferrous scrap using an electric arc furnace. There is no better way to remember the classroom instruction in the morning than seeing a charge of an EAF in the afternoon. You can register for the conference by clicking here or by going to www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/Events/Steel101
I will be in my office all this week. I begin traveling again on March 27.
If you are looking to renew, upgrade or add more people to your existing SMU membership, or if you are new to Steel Market Update and would like information about Executive and Premium subscription options, please contact Paige Mayhair at 724-720-1012 or by email: Paige@SteelMarketUpdate.com
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
We just wrapped another Steel 101 Workshop, where you take what you learned in the classroom into the steel mill.
Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.