Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
March 6, 2020
We get all kinds of reactions to articles we publish. However, I was a bit surprised when one of our readers sent a note regarding our coverage of IHS Markit’s forecast of the impact of the coronavirus on the U.S. economy. The note said, “Article on coronavirus was despicable. Let’s just start a panic.”
Usually, when we get a response like the one above, I assume there are others who feel the same way but are not willing to voice their opinion. So, I am going to share my response:
“IHS Markit is a very reputable consulting and economic forecasting group. The absolute leader in the energy segment, and John Anton is one of the best steel forecasters I know.
“We reported what was shared with the FMA audience.
“I did not report fully on what is happening in Europe, which is heading toward a full-fledged panic. The CRU management is cancelling all events through June (except for our workshops in USA, so far), banning international travel for their employees, and looking at having any high-risk employees work from home.
“It would be a dereliction of our duty not to inform our readers who have the responsibility to protect themselves, their families and their employees by being proactive.
“As John Anton stated – this is not Armageddon and he hopes he is wrong, but better to be forewarned….
“I don’t have an opinion as to whether he is right or wrong. Only that his opinion is worth reporting.
“In my Final Thoughts [in Thursday’s newsletter] you got a taste of what is going on in China (which confirmed what John Anton told the audience) as they stamp out the spread to their population.
“You are welcome to disagree.”
The negative comment was not the only one we received on the coronavirus article. I also received this: “I just wanted to let you know I thought today’s newsletter was great. Very informative on the coronavirus and offered some different perspectives. I especially enjoyed hearing the perspective of someone with firsthand knowledge in China.”
As I stated earlier, I believe it is our job to provide information that is being shared with the greater steel community. What you and your company do with that information is up to you.
We have a Steel 101 workshop coming up at the end of this month. Because it is a small group of under 40 people, we have not cancelled the event. SMU is in constant conversation with the CRU Events team, with the venues and, in the case of the Steel 101 workshop, with the steel mill involved with the workshop regarding the coronavirus and possible spread in their area. We will be reaching out to our Steel 101 attendees later this week to provide guidance about the March 31-April 1 workshop.
Registration is also open for the 2020 SMU Steel Summit Conference which will be held in Atlanta on Aug. 24-26. For more details, go to our website: www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/events/steel-summit
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Can technology help with pig iron and DRI/HBI tariffs?
Final Thoughts
Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.
Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.
Final Thoughts
Despite some scary headlines lately (especially about Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell) this is not October 2008 (financial crisis) or March 2020 (onset of the pandemic). But it sure seems like we’ve taken a relatively strong economy and poured a thick sauce of uncertainty over it.
Final Thoughts
I put some of our survey data through ChatGpt, with interesting results.