Economy
CRU Webcast: Global Pandemic Triggers Global Recession
Written by Tim Triplett
April 4, 2020
The global impact of Covid-19 has been profound. Lockdowns of countries and regions are now the norm. Uncertainty about the ultimate economic cost of this health crisis has fuelled financial market volatility and prompted unprecedented government support. CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen joins Doug Hilderhoff, principal analyst for aluminium, and Josh Spoores, principal analyst for steel, for CRU’s latest global outlook, and implications for key commodity markets.
Following are the topics discussed:
CRU’s Global Macro Forecast
Global recession and contraction in world industrial production
China sees a hard landing in 2020, despite a quick return to normality
EU and the USA enter recession
Implication for Steel
Steel sheet demand in the USA to fall 25 percent
Mills quickly cut production and idle mills
Sheet prices may fall back towards lows last seen in 2015
Implications for Aluminum
Massive primary aluminium surplus unavoidable in 2020
LME to average $1,425 in Q2
Ex. China primary aluminium demand to fall >10 percent in 2020
Click here to watch the webinar. Slides for this presentation can be downloaded here.
This webinar was originally recorded on April 2 for CRU subscribers.
Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in Economy
Second steel derivatives S232 inclusion window opens, business community voices concern
The US Department of Commerce announced that its second window for submitting applications for the inclusion of derivative steel and aluminum products in Section 232 tariffs is now open, according to the US Federal Register. September’s Inclusion Window Sept. 15 through Sept. 29, applicants can email requests for inclusions to the Defense Industrial Base Programs. The first […]
Steel Summit: ITR economist urges execs to prepare for growth, not recession
If the steel industry professionals who made it to the very final presentation of this year’s SMU Steel Summit were expecting another round of cautious forecasting, they were in for a surprise. Because what they got was a wake-up call.
ISM: Manufacturing growth remained down in August
US manufacturing activity remained muted in August despite a marginal gain from July's recent low, according to supply executives contributing to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)’s latest report.
Steel Summit: Dr. Basu blames tariffs for riskier path ahead
Steel executives packed the main conference hall of the 2025 SMU Steel Summit on Tuesday, Aug. 26, to hear economist Dr. Anirban Basu lay out his blunt view of tariffs, inflation, and demand.
Steel Summit: Schneider sees SDI ‘on the edge of a very good run’
Steel Dynamics Inc. (SDI) President and Chief Operating Officer, Barry Schneider, remains bullish about the Fort Wayne, Ind.-based steelmaker’s position in the current market.