Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
May 11, 2020
Pandemic is a public health issue, not a political issue.
I watched just a few minutes of the Senate testimony today with Dr. Fauci, Dr. Redfield of the CDC, Dr. Hahn, commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, and Admiral Giroir, the Assistant Secretary for Health. I thought one question and answer was interesting in this political environment. Dr. Fauci told the Senators (in response to one of their questions) that neither President Trump nor President Obama have held back efforts (previous or now) to develop a vaccine for COVID-19.
Fingers crossed, we may have a vaccine by early 2021. Until then….
Well, this is what everybody is wondering. What will the economy, jobs…life…look like until we get an effective vaccine?
We have been conducting weekly “Community Chat” webinars in an effort to answers questions, or at least provide market information and data for those attending to reflect upon as you consider your steel buying and selling decisions. The webinars are free and available to anyone. You do not need to be an SMU or CRU subscriber, nor do you have to be a high-level executive to register. Please let your sales, purchasing, logistics, financial and others within your organization know they are welcome to attend. The webinars are at 11 AM ET (10 AM CT, 9 AM MT and 8 AM PT) and last no more than 45 minutes.
We have a good lineup of webinar speakers over the next few weeks.
Wednesday, May 13, we will have Dr. Chris Kuehl of Armada Corporate Intelligence chat with me as we discuss the economy and what to expect in the coming weeks and months. Dr. Kuehl has been a speaker at multiple SMU Steel Summit Conferences and his wit and wisdom are always appreciated. You can register for this webinar by clicking here.
Wednesday, May 20, we will host John Anton of IHS Markit. Anton was the first economist SMU heard speak directly to the damage COVID-19 was going to have on the world and U.S. economies. He continues to have strong opinions on the subject. Anton is also a well-known speaker at SMU Steel Summit Conferences, and he is scheduled to speak at our conference with Timna Tanners of Bank of America this year. We will have a link for registration for this conference ready by Thursday of this week.
On Wednesday, May 27, we will host Barry Zekelman who is the Chairman and CEO of Zekelman Industries – one of the largest flat rolled steel purchasers in North America. Zekelman is a strong supporter of American manufacturing. I believe he will be both informative and entertaining. Registration will not open for that webinar until the end of next week.
If there is someone you would like to see participate as a speaker in one of our webinars, or a subject that is important that we haven’t addressed, please contact me at John@SteelMarketUpdate.com
My Opinion
That gurgling sound you are hearing in the market is steel buyers absorbing as little of the price increases as possible, and the echo is that of the steel mills pushing for as much as they can possibly get while keeping order books solid.
I think the market still expects another round of price increases between now and the end of the month. One of the steel mills told me they believe prime scrap could go to $350 per gross ton next month (June delivery). If true, that puts further pressure on the EAF mills to move prices higher. If they (EAF mills) think that a second increase will firm $500 per ton now, then you might see a third increase come late May/early June in order to move the numbers closer to $540-$550 per ton.
Stay tuned.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?