SMU Data and Models
Steel Mill Lead Times: Continue to Extend as Mills Get Busier
Written by Tim Triplett
June 11, 2020
Lead times for spot orders of flat rolled and plate steels have extended in the past four weeks as demand has picked up and mill production has come down. In response to the COVID-19 shutdowns of nonessential businesses in March, steel producers idled furnaces to sync their output with demand. Lengthening lead times this week suggest the mills are busier than they were a month ago and that demand may be improving as government restrictions ease and more companies get back to work.
Hot rolled lead times now average 3.73 weeks, up from 3.38 in mid-May. Cold rolled orders currently have a lead time of 5.71 weeks, up from 5.23 a month ago. The current lead time for galvanized steel is 5.95 weeks, up from 5.60, while Galvalume is at 6.00 weeks, up from 5.80 in SMU’s check of the market four weeks ago.
Plate lead times have also extended over the past month to 4.00 weeks from 3.20.
A few mills have begun to bring idled capacity back online already in anticipation of rising demand. Steel Market Update will be watching lead times closely for signs that production additions are outpacing new orders.
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.
Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment rebounds from multi-year low
Both of SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices edged higher this week. Current Sentiment rebounded from a near five-year low, while Future Sentiment rose to a two-month high
SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.
SMU Survey: Sheet lead times pull back after early-June blip, plate holds
Following the uptick seen two weeks ago, lead times eased this week for all four sheet products tracked by SMU, while plate lead times held steady, according to this week’s market survey.
SMU Survey: Pricing power abruptly shifts to steel buyers
The majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey say domestic mills are more willing to talk price on sheet and plate products than they were earlier this month. Sheet negotiation rates rebounded across the board compared to early June, while our plate negotiation rate hit a full 100%.
Service centers: Mill orders down marginally in May
SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) declined for a third straight month in May, but only marginally.