Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
August 21, 2020
Last week Steel Market Update adjusted all of the flat rolled price momentum indicators from Neutral to Higher. We made the decision to move hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume to higher due to prices already beginning to track up from the low levels achieved over the past couple of weeks. We also made the move now as we are starting to capture lead times beginning to move out, and mills tightening negotiation flexibility over the past week to two weeks.
Momentum referenced as being Higher means we believe flat rolled steel prices will rise over the next 30 days.
However, we are not of the opinion that prices will shoot higher from here, but rather make small moves as scrap prices tighten. We will be watching to make more sense as to what the true supply and demand balance is as new supply comes into the market.
NLMK USA being on strike at their Farrell, Pa., steel mill will help to tighten spot prices.
We continue to keep plate momentum as being neutral.
We will not have an SMU Community Chat Webinar this week due to the SMU Steel Summit Conference being conducted. After the conference has concluded, I will be taking my first extended vacation since I began SMU in August 2008. I will be out of the office until Monday, Sept. 21. I am going to try to disengage with work for a bit. This conference has taken a lot out of this old body of mine….
The 2020 SMU Steel Summit Conference was probably the most difficult project I have done in many years. It was a team effort and I need to give credit to Nicky Coslett, Anna Chamberlain Webber, Paul Terry, Emma Phillips, Hayley Ward, Tom Willatt and many others from the CRU events team in London along with Jill Waldman, Ray Culley, Tim Triplett, Sandy Williams and Brett Linton on the SMU team. I also want to recognize the production/AV team at Rec Media that is working with London and me out of my house in Hobe Sound, Fla.
The photos to the left are of me recording some of the intros to the various programs last week. The second photo is some of the production crew here in my home earlier today (Sunday) as we prepare to launch early tomorrow morning.
If you like the show – let us know. Mario Briccetti will be doing video recordings of the reaction to the platform. Please reach out to Mario within the platform if you would like to say something on the record.
Enjoy the conference this week. We will not be writing a lot of stories about the conference as we want to save the show for those who registered.
The newsletters this week will be a little shorter than normal with all of our people focused on the conference (or maybe not depending on what is happening in the industry).
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?