Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by Tim Triplett
September 11, 2020
Our thoughts and prayers go out to the millions of people on the West Coast who are suffering the threat and devastation of historic forest fires. The loss of life and property is staggering. And the blow to business and commerce in the region has yet to be measured. Face masks are doing double duty against COVID and smoke. There’s limited information at the moment, but Steel Market Update will try to report on how the fires are impacting manufacturing in California and Oregon in upcoming issues.
The Commerce Department will host a series of webinars on how to use its new SIMA import monitoring system. More information about the webinars can be found at https://www.trade.gov/updates-steel-import-licensing.
As trade attorney and SMU columnist Lewis Leibowitz explains elsewhere in this issue, Commerce is launching a new Steel Import Monitoring and Analysis (SIMA) system, effective Oct. 13. The new system will require that importers document not only where the finished steel product came from, but also where the substrate used to make it was originally “melted and poured.”
In the past, if steel was altered substantially through a process such as cold rolling or coating, where it was processed became its country of origin for trade purposes. Now, with the new system, Commerce will take into consideration where the steel was originally produced in an effort to more readily identify transshipment and circumvention of antidumping or countervailing duty orders.
The U.S. steel industry has been a big supporter of the “melted and poured” concept. U.S. steel execs lobbied hard for it to become part of the USMCA trade agreement with Canada and Mexico in regard to automotive production. USMCA requires 70 percent of each vehicle’s steel and aluminum to originate in North America.
Big River Steel has reportedly encountered additional issues with the galvanizing line at its mill in Osceola, Ark., which was damaged by an electrical failure on Aug. 30. Repairs will be completed and the line will be back up and running between Sept. 17-23, according to press reports.
This is the last week for registered attendees to access the recorded sessions from the SMU Virtual Steel Summit. The conference platform will no longer be live and accessible after this Friday.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
Tim Triplett, Executive Editor
Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?