Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
October 9, 2020
We are now 23 days from the close of the 2020 presidential election. I think all of us, no matter how we use our vote, are hoping for a quick decision and then an orderly move to either the second term of President Trump or the new Biden administration. If you have not already voted, I highly encourage you to do so as early as your state allows.
We are conducting one of our flat rolled and plate steel market trends surveys this week. We are going to canvass (confidentially) our respondents to see what steel industry executives are thinking when it comes to this year’s election. The last few months may have changed some minds since we took our straw poll at this year’s SMU Steel Summit Conference. Just to remind everyone, at the end of August, 53 percent of the respondents were supporting Trump, 41 percent Biden and 6 percent were supporting someone else or not yet committed to one candidate.
By a vote of 63 percent to 37 percent, our 2020 conference respondents also believed the Republicans will remain in control of the Senate.
Back in 2016, 48 percent of our conference attendees were supporting Trump with only 22 percent supporting Clinton.
If you receive an invitation at 8 a.m. ET tomorrow morning, please take a few minutes to respond to our inquiries. As noted above, your responses are confidential and neither you nor your company’s name will be shared with anyone.
On Oct. 21 our SMU Community Chat Webinar will feature Dr. David Schultz, Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Legal Studies at Hamline University in St. Paul, Minn. Dr. Schultz is a nationally recognized expert on elections and election ethics. He spoke at our conference this year, and he will be speaking at a CRU event on Oct. 20. We will feature a recording of his Oct. 20 remarks, as well as Q&A. He will have an analysis of the state polling data and will detail his forecast for the presidential election as well as who will control the Senate. To register, please click here or go to www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/blog/smu-community-chat-webinars. You can also use the website address to view a recording of last week’s SMU Community Chat webinar with Timna Tanners of Bank of America (or any of the previous webinars).
We will not have a webinar this Wednesday as we are trying to space them out every other week, unless something happens that prompts us to have one early.
I read an article from Reuters about the steel industry and the impact President Trump has had on the market. I think some of you may wish to review the article. Here is a link to the Reuters article.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Getting back to the price increases I mentioned at the top of this article, to what extent are they aimed at raising prices and to what extent are they aimed at stopping the bleeding that was happening in the second half of May, before President Trump announced the 50% tariff?
Final Thoughts
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Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.