Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
October 14, 2020
Welcome to the year that never ends…and the worst part is just beginning.
First, the good news. According to the manufacturing and service center executives who made up 82 percent of the respondents to this week’s survey, the steel economy is going to be much improved in 2021 versus what we have seen this year. About 71 percent said they anticipate better conditions in 2021, and 14.5 percent expect business to remain the same, while just 14.5 percent predict business conditions will be worse.
The comments they made referenced two main themes: COVID-19 status and who wins the presidency. My personal opinion is that COVID could well impact the economy during Q1 and Q2 with improvements after Q2, and it will not matter who wins the presidency. If Biden becomes president, there will not be enough time to impact COVID during Q1 and Q2. The economy will do well no matter who is president, and potentially could be better under the Democrats because they will pass COVID relief and pump money into the economy. Looking further out, if the Democrats win the Senate, House and presidency, there is a better than 50 percent chance infrastructure will finally get done.
The respondents to this week’s SMU flat rolled and plate steel market trends survey do not even remotely agree with national polling regarding the U.S. presidential race. Our sample size is much smaller than the larger polls, and the steel industry in general appears to be more Republican than the overall population.
Nonetheless, here goes: We asked our survey respondents, “We are now three weeks before the final day of voting for the presidential election. Who will you be voting for president (confidential)?” About 66 percent said they will be supporting President Trump and 24 percent Joe Biden. The balance being not committed or were supporting “other” candidates.
I find this result surprising, but I was surprised in late August 2016 when our conference (with a much deeper pool of respondents) told SMU of the industry’s strong support of Trump over Clinton.
My recommendation to everyone is to go out and let your voice be heard by voting, and protect your vote by doing so as early as possible. I will be going to the polls in person here in Florida next week when early voting opens.
Reminder that our first virtual Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals Workshop will be conducted next week on Tuesday, Oct. 20, and Wednesday, Oct. 21. Because this is a virtual program, we can accept registrations up to the day prior to the event. For more information click here.
The next Steel 101 workshop after next week will be conducted on Dec. 8-9, 2020.
Registration is open for the CRU Ryan’s Notes Ferroalloys 2020 Virtual Conference scheduled for Oct. 26-29. This is the ferroalloys trading event of the year, to run on the same virtual platform as the SMU Steel Summit did in August. The virtual conference will include “speed networking” sessions at several points in the agenda to replicate those casual meetings that happen in real-life, and to assist in introductions. The agenda includes an impressive lineup of speakers, whose presentations will be available on-demand for three weeks after the live dates, so attendees can catch up on any they may have missed. Click here for more information.
We are working on new Hedging Price Risk or Futures workshops with an expectation of our first virtual event being either in December 2020 or early January 2021. We will be working in concert with the CME Group, CRU, our SMU team, and an outside instructor. I hope to have this project completed over the next couple of weeks. Stay tuned.
Steel Market Update will be working with the Port of Tampa on the Port of Tampa Steel Conference which is slated to be a virtual event in 2021. The date is Feb. 2, 2021, and more details will be coming out over the next couple of weeks.
If you have any questions about upcoming events, or anything in our newsletter, please send them to me at John@SteelMarketUpdate.com
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
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