SMU Data and Models
Steel Mill Lead Times: Extend to 6-8 Weeks
Written by Tim Triplett
October 15, 2020
Lead times for hot rolled steel now average longer than six weeks, and coated steel orders longer than eight weeks, as the mills remain busy in a market adjusting to business in a pandemic. Lead times are an indicator of steel demand—longer lead times indicate the mills have more orders to process and are less likely to negotiate on prices.
According to Steel Market Update’s check of the market this week, hot rolled lead times now average 6.15 weeks, up from 5.78 two weeks ago and 5.50 weeks at this time last month. HR lead times have stretched by nearly three weeks since hitting 3.25 weeks at the low point in April.
Cold rolled lead times are at 7.77 weeks, up from 7.17 in SMU’s last check of the market, and 7.32 weeks in mid-September. Cold rolled lead times are more than two and a half weeks longer than in late April.
Galvanized lead times are have jumped out to 8.24 weeks, up from 7.73 weeks in early October. The current average Galvalume lead time is up to 8.86 weeks as Galvalume supplies remain tight.
Plate lead times have been fairly flat in September and October at around 5.00 weeks, plus or minus, as plate demand and pricing have been hurt by weakness in the energy and commercial construction markets.
Looking at three-month moving averages, which smooth out the variability in the biweekly readings, lead times for flat rolled and plate have continued moving outward since late June. The current 3MMA for hot rolled is 5.05 weeks, cold rolled is 6.80 weeks, galvanized is 7.23 weeks, Galvalume is 7.72 weeks and plate is 4.72 weeks.
Some early indications suggest that steel prices may be nearing a peak. Steel Market Update will be keeping a close watch for signs that lead times are beginning to shorten.
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.
Tim Triplett
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