SMU Data and Models

Steel Mill Lead Times: Extend Even Further
Written by Tim Triplett
October 29, 2020
Lead times for spot orders of steel continue to extend with hot rolled delivery now averaging more than six and a half weeks and coated steel orders around eight and a half weeks. Lead times are an indicator of steel demand—longer lead times mean the mills have more orders to process and are less likely to negotiate on prices.
According to Steel Market Update’s check of the market this week, current hot rolled lead times average 6.58 weeks, up from 6.15 two weeks ago and 5.78 at this time last month. HR lead times have doubled since hitting 3.25 weeks at the low point in April.
Cold rolled lead times are at 8.39 weeks, up from 7.77 weeks in SMU’s prior check of the market and 7.17 at this point last month. Cold rolled lead times are three weeks longer than in late April.
Galvanized lead times are have jumped out to 8.61 weeks, up from 7.73 weeks a month ago. The current average Galvalume lead time is up to 9.23 weeks as supplies of that product remain especially tight.
Plate lead times are slightly extended at 5.60 weeks, but have been fairly flat over the past two months as weakness in key plate markets has tempered demand and pricing.
The market is keeping a close watch for a change of direction in lead times, which might suggest steel prices are beginning to peak, but there’s no sign of any shortening so far.
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.

Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in SMU Data and Models

SMU Scrap Survey: Current and Future Sentiment tick down
SMU’s Current Sentiment Index for scrap decreased this month, a move mirrored by our Future Sentiment Index, according to the latest data from our ferrous scrap survey.

SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment slips again, future outlook improves
Each of our Sentiment Indices continues to reflect that steel buyers are positive about their present and future business prospects, though that confidence has eased considerably compared to the beginning of the year.

SMU scrap market survey results now available
SMU’s October ferrous scrap market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.

SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.

SMU Survey: Sheet and plate lead times stabilize
Sheet and plate lead times saw minor shifts this week, according to SMU’s latest market survey. Sheet times have inched up over the last month but remain within days of multi-year lows, as they have since May. Plate lead times have bobbed within a tight range for months, hovering roughly a week longer than this time last year.