SMU Data and Models
Steel Mill Lead Times: Mills Remain Busy
Written by Tim Triplett
October 29, 2020
Signaling that the mills remain busy, lead times for delivery of spot orders continue to lengthen with hot rolled now averaging more than six and a half weeks and coated steel orders around nine weeks. Lead times are an indicator of steel demand—longer lead times mean the mills have more orders to process and are less likely to negotiate on prices.
According to Steel Market Update’s check of the market this week, current hot rolled lead times average 6.62 weeks, up from 6.58 two weeks ago and 6.15 at this time last month. HR lead times have more than doubled since hitting 3.25 weeks at the low point in April.
Cold rolled lead times are at 8.31 weeks, little changed over the past two weeks, but up from 7.77 weeks at this time last month. Cold rolled lead times are more than three weeks longer than in late April.
Galvanized lead times have jumped out to 8.98 weeks, up from 8.61 two weeks ago and 8.24 a month ago. The current average Galvalume lead time is up to 9.80 weeks as supplies of that product remain especially tight.
Plate lead times have not extended as much as flat rolled, but now average 5.91 weeks, a week longer than in early October and two and a half weeks longer than the low point back in May.
Viewed as three-month moving averages to smooth out the volatility, hot rolled lead times have continued to extend to 5.93 weeks, cold rolled 7.60 weeks, galvanized 8.06 weeks, Galvalume 8.72 weeks and plate 5.29 weeks.
Based on the continuing trend, there is no sign yet that lead times have peaked, which suggests the same for steel prices.
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.
Tim Triplett
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