SMU Data and Models
Steel Mill Lead Times: Mills Remain Busy
Written by Tim Triplett
October 29, 2020
Signaling that the mills remain busy, lead times for delivery of spot orders continue to lengthen with hot rolled now averaging more than six and a half weeks and coated steel orders around nine weeks. Lead times are an indicator of steel demand—longer lead times mean the mills have more orders to process and are less likely to negotiate on prices.
According to Steel Market Update’s check of the market this week, current hot rolled lead times average 6.62 weeks, up from 6.58 two weeks ago and 6.15 at this time last month. HR lead times have more than doubled since hitting 3.25 weeks at the low point in April.
Cold rolled lead times are at 8.31 weeks, little changed over the past two weeks, but up from 7.77 weeks at this time last month. Cold rolled lead times are more than three weeks longer than in late April.
Galvanized lead times have jumped out to 8.98 weeks, up from 8.61 two weeks ago and 8.24 a month ago. The current average Galvalume lead time is up to 9.80 weeks as supplies of that product remain especially tight.
Plate lead times have not extended as much as flat rolled, but now average 5.91 weeks, a week longer than in early October and two and a half weeks longer than the low point back in May.
Viewed as three-month moving averages to smooth out the volatility, hot rolled lead times have continued to extend to 5.93 weeks, cold rolled 7.60 weeks, galvanized 8.06 weeks, Galvalume 8.72 weeks and plate 5.29 weeks.
Based on the continuing trend, there is no sign yet that lead times have peaked, which suggests the same for steel prices.
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.
Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment rebounds from multi-year low
Both of SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices edged higher this week. Current Sentiment rebounded from a near five-year low, while Future Sentiment rose to a two-month high
SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.
SMU Survey: Sheet lead times pull back after early-June blip, plate holds
Following the uptick seen two weeks ago, lead times eased this week for all four sheet products tracked by SMU, while plate lead times held steady, according to this week’s market survey.
SMU Survey: Pricing power abruptly shifts to steel buyers
The majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey say domestic mills are more willing to talk price on sheet and plate products than they were earlier this month. Sheet negotiation rates rebounded across the board compared to early June, while our plate negotiation rate hit a full 100%.
Service centers: Mill orders down marginally in May
SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) declined for a third straight month in May, but only marginally.