SMU Data and Models
Steel Mill Lead Times: Hot Rolled Extends to Eight Weeks
Written by Tim Triplett
December 22, 2020
Steel Market Update’s check of the market a few days before Christmas shows no let-up in steel demand, as prices continue to rise and lead times continue to extend. With steel supplies remaining extremely tight, lead times for deliveries of hot rolled have stretched to more than eight weeks and coated steel orders to around 10 weeks. Lead times are an indicator of steel demand—longer lead times mean the mills are busy and less likely to negotiate on price.
Current hot rolled lead times average 8.24 weeks, up from 7.31 two weeks ago. HR lead times have extended by five weeks since hitting 3.25 weeks at the low point in April.
Cold rolled lead times are at 9.44 weeks, up from 8.77 two weeks ago. Like hot rolled, cold rolled lead times are more than a month longer than in late April.
Galvanized lead times now average 9.81 weeks, up from 9.21 two weeks ago—about four and a half weeks longer than the low point this spring. Similarly, the current average Galvalume lead time is out to 10.80 weeks.
Demand for plate products has clearly improved as the mills are collecting at least some of their recent price increases. Plate lead times have seen the most change, extending to 8.13 weeks from 7.00 weeks earlier in December. Plate lead times bottomed at 3.20 weeks back in May.
Viewed as three-month moving averages to smooth out the volatility, hot rolled lead times have continued to extend to 6.95 weeks, cold rolled 8.60 weeks, galvanized 9.04 weeks, Galvalume 9.62 weeks and plate 6.32 weeks.
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.
Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Scrap Survey: Current and Future Sentiment tick down
SMU’s Current Sentiment Index for scrap decreased this month, a move mirrored by our Future Sentiment Index, according to the latest data from our ferrous scrap survey.
SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment slips again, future outlook improves
Each of our Sentiment Indices continues to reflect that steel buyers are positive about their present and future business prospects, though that confidence has eased considerably compared to the beginning of the year.
SMU scrap market survey results now available
SMU’s October ferrous scrap market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.
SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.
SMU Survey: Sheet and plate lead times stabilize
Sheet and plate lead times saw minor shifts this week, according to SMU’s latest market survey. Sheet times have inched up over the last month but remain within days of multi-year lows, as they have since May. Plate lead times have bobbed within a tight range for months, hovering roughly a week longer than this time last year.