Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
March 19, 2021
Mill lead times, which means the amount of time it takes to receive (or be promised delivery) for a new order placed today, continue to be highly extended. We share our lead time by product graphic every couple of weeks after we conduct our latest market analysis. We also look at lead times from a different angle asking the manufacturing and service centers to describe lead times as being 1) extremely short; 2) shorter than normal; 3) normal; 4) slightly longer than normal; or 5) highly extended.
During the height of the pandemic (early second quarter 2020) lead times were considered to be shorter than normal by the majority of the respondents. Last week, one year after the beginning of the pandemic, lead times are referenced as being highly extended. Manufacturing companies agree with service centers and virtually no one is referencing lead times as being normal.
Here is what that looks like on a historical basis for each group:
We gather information from the steel mills regarding whether their order book is “on time” or how long they feel it will take for them to catch up on deliveries. I find it interesting that 38 percent of the respondents from the steel mills feel their orders are not behind. As you can see from the graphic below, 50 percent of the mill respondents believe it will take until May/June or beyond before their mill is able to catch up on late mill deliveries.
We asked the steel mills if there is enough new supply coming on stream that it will impact steel prices this year? The mill respondents were split 50/50 as to whether the supply coming on will be great enough to impact steel prices.
All of this information is made available to our Premium level subscribers and can be found in the PowerPoint presentation we provide at the end of each week that we conduct one of our surveys. You can learn more about how to upgrade to Premium by contacting Paige Mayhair at Paige@SteelMarketUpdate.com
2021 SMU Youth Leadership Award
Nominations are open for the 2021 SMU Youth Leadership Award sponsored by the Steel Manufacturers Association. This award will be presented to someone from within the industry (manufacturing, service center, toll processor, steel mill, trading company) who is no more than 35 years of age as of Aug. 1, 2021.
We are looking for candidates who demonstrate excellence and leadership. We are looking for young people within the industry who are 1) innovative; 2) have leadership qualities; 3) and are rising stars within their company.
Past winners include Meredith Meade of Tempel Steel (2019) and Stephen Sterling of Quality Metals Stamping (2021). You can learn more about the past winners by clicking here.
If you would like to learn more and view the nomination process, please click here.
Here is a listing of the workshops and conference schedule between now and the end of August 2021.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO, John@SteelMarketUpdate.com
John Packard
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