SMU Data and Models

Steel Mill Lead Times: Within a Week of Normal
Written by Tim Triplett
December 22, 2021
In line with the declining steel prices, lead times for spot orders from the mills continue to shorten with the average for hot rolled now below five weeks and cold rolled and galvanized now below eight weeks, based on Steel Market Update’s check of the market on Monday and Tuesday. Lead times for all products are the shortest they have been in 2021 and are comparable to where they were in September/October 2020. Lead times are a sign of activity at the mill level and are considered a leading indicator of finished steel prices.
Buyers polled by SMU this week reported mill lead times ranging from 3-9 weeks for hot rolled, 5-10 weeks for cold rolled, 5-11 weeks for galvanized, 8-10 weeks for Galvalume, and 4-6 weeks for plate.
The average lead time for hot rolled has declined to 4.92 weeks from 5.04 weeks in mid-December. Cold rolled lead times now average 7.53 weeks, a decline from 8.35 two weeks ago. Galvanized lead times dipped to 7.50 weeks from 8.19 weeks in the same period. The average Galvalume lead time remains about the same at 8.83 weeks.
Like sheet products, mill lead times for plate also continue to shorten. The average plate lead time moved down to 5.40 weeks from the 6.38 weeks seen in SMU’s market check two weeks ago.
To put those numbers in perspective, hot rolled lead times have averaged 4.59 weeks, cold rolled lead times 6.59 weeks and galvanized lead times 6.92 weeks in data gathered by SMU over the past decade. Therefore, lead times are now within a week of being what might be considered “normal” after a long period of historic highs.
By Tim Triplett, Tim@SteelMarketUpdate.com

Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in SMU Data and Models

SMU Scrap Survey: Current and Future Sentiment tick down
SMU’s Current Sentiment Index for scrap decreased this month, a move mirrored by our Future Sentiment Index, according to the latest data from our ferrous scrap survey.

SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment slips again, future outlook improves
Each of our Sentiment Indices continues to reflect that steel buyers are positive about their present and future business prospects, though that confidence has eased considerably compared to the beginning of the year.

SMU scrap market survey results now available
SMU’s October ferrous scrap market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.

SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.

SMU Survey: Sheet and plate lead times stabilize
Sheet and plate lead times saw minor shifts this week, according to SMU’s latest market survey. Sheet times have inched up over the last month but remain within days of multi-year lows, as they have since May. Plate lead times have bobbed within a tight range for months, hovering roughly a week longer than this time last year.