SMU Data and Models
Steel Mill Lead Times: Declines Continue
Written by Tim Triplett
January 6, 2022
Lead times on spot orders from domestic steel mills continue to decline, with no sign yet of how soon they might level out. Declining lead times are a leading indicator of declining steel prices.
The average lead time for hot rolled is now approaching four and a half weeks, while cold rolled and galvanized are down around seven weeks, based on Steel Market Update’s check of the market in the first week of the New Year. (SMU measures lead times as the time it takes from when an order is placed with the mill to when the order is processed and ready for shipping, not including delivery time to the buyer.)
Buyers polled by SMU this week reported mill lead times ranging from 3-8 weeks for hot rolled, 4-10 weeks for cold rolled, 4-11 weeks for galvanized, 5-10 weeks for Galvalume, and 4-8 weeks for plate.
The average lead time for hot rolled has declined to 4.69 weeks from 4.92 two weeks ago. Cold rolled lead times now average 6.99 weeks, a decline from 7.53 prior to the Christmas holiday. Galvanized lead times dipped to 7.21 weeks from 7.50 in the same timeframe. The average Galvalume lead time is down by nearly a week to about 8.0 weeks.
Mill lead times for plate are now at 6.07 weeks, up slightly from the third week in December. But that increase might reflect a limited number of transactions during the holiday period.
Lead times are the shortest they have been in nearly a year and a half after hitting historic highs in 2021. But like prices, it appears they have more room to slide before reaching a new normal.
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.
By Tim Triplett, Tim@SteelMarketUpdate.com
Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Modest improvement in Sentiment Indices
Both SMU Sentiment Indices continue to show that buyers remain optimistic for their company’s chances of success, though far less confident than they felt earlier in the year.
SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s Aug. 8, 2025, steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.
SMU’s July at a glance
SMU’s Monthly Review provides a summary of our key steel market metrics for the previous month, with the latest data updated through July 31.
SMU Survey: Mills maintain short lead times on sheet
Mill production times for sheet products are holding just above multi-year lows, while plate lead times remain elevated.
SMU Survey: Most buyers say mills are willing to talk price
Most steel buyers continue to report that mills are open to negotiating spot prices. Negotiation rates have remained high for most of the past three months.