Economy
Weak Conditions on the Horizon: Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Written by Becca Moczygemba
October 18, 2022
Business activity in the state of New York has recently declined, according to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey responses collected by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York between Oct. 3 and Oct. 11.
The survey’s headline general business conditions index dropped to -9.1 for October, maintaining a negative value for the third straight month.
The index plummeted to -31.30 in August, its lowest reading since May 2020. A recovery in September came in better than expected at -1.5, though still not ideal, as any reading below zero denotes deteriorating conditions.
Shipments plunged a staggering 19.9 points to -0.3 despite a small increase in the average number of hours worked per week.
“Delivery times held steady, and inventories inched higher. Labor market indicators pointed to a small increase in employment and the average workweek. Input price increases picked up, while the pace of selling price increases held steady. Looking ahead, firms do not expect business conditions to improve over the next six months,” the NY Fed said in its monthly survey report.
With weak conditions on the horizon, the indexes for future new orders and shipments remained low at -8.3 for new orders and -14.5 for shipments, respectively. However, employment and capital spending are expected to increase, while delivery times are predicted to shorten significantly.
An interactive history of the Empire State Manufacturing Index is available on our website. If you need assistance logging into or navigating the website, please contact us at info@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
By Becca Moczygemba, Becca@SteelMarketUpdate.com
Becca Moczygemba
Read more from Becca MoczygembaLatest in Economy
SMU Community Chat: Tariff-induced panic purchases, inflation, and calculating costs
Chief executive of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), Tom Derry highlighted how reactive buying behavior has shifted the market into a quiet demand period. Derry presented ISM data during the weekly SMU community chat.
Architecture billings still sluggish despite project inquiry uptick
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI), a leading indicator for non-residential construction activity, declined for an eighth straight month in June.
Beige Book: Tariff pressures mount, flat outlook
All districts reported “experiencing modest to pronounced input cost pressures related to tariffs, especially for raw materials used in manufacturing and construction.”
Steel exports recovered in May but still historically low
US steel exports rose 10% from April to May but remained low compared to recent years. This came just one month after exports fell to the lowest level recorded in nearly five years.
AISI: Raw steel production ticks up near recent high
The volume of raw steel produced by US mills inched higher last week, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). After steadily increasing in April and May, domestic mill output stabilized in early June and has remained historically strong since.