SMU Data and Models

Mill Negotiations Rate Slips, But Plate Ticks Up
July 6, 2023
The overall mill negotiation rate dropped this week following the July 4th holiday, though plate bucked the trend, increasing by four percentage points, according to SMU’s most recent survey data.
The percentage of respondents saying steel mills were willing to talk price on plate stood at 63% this week, up from 59% two weeks ago, while cold rolled showed the largest decline, dropping 22 percentage points to 71% in the same comparison.
Every two weeks, SMU asks steel buyers whether domestic mills are willing to negotiate lower spot pricing on new orders. This week, (Figure 1) 78% of participants surveyed by SMU reported mills were willing to negotiate price on new orders, off seven percentage points from two weeks earlier. Since hitting a year-to-date low of 24% at the end of March, the rate had risen since, before plateauing in the mid-80s at the end of May.
Figure 2 below shows negotiation rates by product. Hot rolled fell five percentage points to 86% of buyers reporting mills more willing to negotiate price vs. two weeks earlier, while galvanized also slipped five percentage points to 84%. Galvalume remained level at 100% vs. the last market check. Recall that Galvalume can be more volatile because we have fewer survey participants there.
Note: SMU surveys active steel buyers every other week to gauge the willingness of their steel suppliers to negotiate pricing. The results reflect current steel demand and changing spot pricing trends. SMU provides our members with a number of ways to interact with current and historical data. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Negotiations data, visit our website here.
By Ethan Bernard, ethan@steelmarketupdate.com
Latest in SMU Data and Models

SMU Survey: Current Sentiment tumbles on tariffs, uncertainty, soft demand
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices moved in opposing directions this week. Our Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index dropped to one of the lowest levels recorded in over five years, while Future Buyers’ Sentiment inched higher.

SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Past survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if […]

SMU Survey: Buyers report little change in sheet and plate lead times
Steel buyers report steady lead times for sheet and plate products, a soft-sideways trend we've seen since May.

SMU Survey: Mills remain flexible on pricing, buyers say
The majority of steel buyers responding to our market survey this week continue to say that mills are negotiable on new spot order prices. Negotiation rates have remained high since May.

Service centers: Mill orders improve in July
SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) moved higher in July after rebounding the month prior. The shift comes after mill orders declined from March through May.