SMU Data and Models
Mill Negotiations Rate Slips, But Plate Ticks Up
July 6, 2023
The overall mill negotiation rate dropped this week following the July 4th holiday, though plate bucked the trend, increasing by four percentage points, according to SMU’s most recent survey data.
The percentage of respondents saying steel mills were willing to talk price on plate stood at 63% this week, up from 59% two weeks ago, while cold rolled showed the largest decline, dropping 22 percentage points to 71% in the same comparison.
Every two weeks, SMU asks steel buyers whether domestic mills are willing to negotiate lower spot pricing on new orders. This week, (Figure 1) 78% of participants surveyed by SMU reported mills were willing to negotiate price on new orders, off seven percentage points from two weeks earlier. Since hitting a year-to-date low of 24% at the end of March, the rate had risen since, before plateauing in the mid-80s at the end of May.
Figure 2 below shows negotiation rates by product. Hot rolled fell five percentage points to 86% of buyers reporting mills more willing to negotiate price vs. two weeks earlier, while galvanized also slipped five percentage points to 84%. Galvalume remained level at 100% vs. the last market check. Recall that Galvalume can be more volatile because we have fewer survey participants there.
Note: SMU surveys active steel buyers every other week to gauge the willingness of their steel suppliers to negotiate pricing. The results reflect current steel demand and changing spot pricing trends. SMU provides our members with a number of ways to interact with current and historical data. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Negotiations data, visit our website here.
By Ethan Bernard, ethan@steelmarketupdate.com
Latest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Sheet and plate lead times flatten out
Sheet and plate lead times held steady this week, according to buyers responding to the latest SMU market survey. This week we saw little change from mid-April levels, with just one product (Galvalume) showing any significant movement.
SMU Survey: More mills willing to deal on sheet prices, less so on plate
Nearly two thirds of the steel buyers who responded to this week’s SMU survey say domestic mills are negotiable on spot prices. This increasing flexibility marks a significant shift from the firmer stance mills held in recent months.
SMU Survey: Sheet lead times ease further, plate hits one-year high
Steel buyers responding to this week’s SMU market survey report a continued softening in sheet lead times. Meanwhile, plate lead times have moderately extended and are at a one-year high.
SMU Survey: Buyers report more price flexibility from mills
Nearly half of the steel buyers responding to this week’s SMU market survey say domestic mills are showing increased willingness to negotiate pricing on new spot orders. This marks a significant shift from the firmer stance mills held in prior weeks.
SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment Indices fall
Current Sentiment Index dropped six points to +42 this week compared to two weeks earlier. It has fallen in every successive survey since reaching a 2025 high of +66 on Feb. 19.