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    December 19, 2024

    HR Futures: Rangebound and waiting for 2025

    Written by Dave Feldstein

    David Feldstein is the President of Rock Trading Advisors. Rock Trading Advisors is a National Futures Association Member Commodity Trade Advisory providing commercial clients with price risk solutions in ferrous, energy, and interest rate derivatives markets.

    In the last article written for SMU, we looked at the rallies that followed both the 2016 and 2022 presidential elections, as well as the moves in the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. The question was, “Will Trump’s election and lower interest rates boost small business optimism in the months ahead?” The answer was clear when the NFIB released its November reading, jumping eight points to 101.7, its highest since June 2021.

    Dave Feldstein

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    Latest in Mexico

    Steel exports fall in September to lowest rate of the year

    US steel exports eased 3% from August to September, marking the third consecutive monthly decline following June’s 17-month high, according to recently released US Department of Commerce figures. Exports have been historically low since early 2025 and remain weak compared to volumes seen in prior years. In September, 615,000 short tons (st) of steel were shipped outside of the country, 2% below the average monthly export rate of the past twelve months. September trade was 3% higher than the same month of 2025, 19% lower than September 2024, 21% lower than September 2023, and 15% lower than September 2022. For context, exports fell to a five-year low of 469,000 st in December and reached a near-five-year high of 914,000 st in May 2023.

    Commerce amends duties on pipe and tube imports

    The US Department of Commerce recently made adjustments to the anti-dumping duties (AD) on certain steel pipe and tube imports after annual administrative reviews, according to notices in the Federal Register. Commerce reviewed the AD order on imports of oil country tubular goods (OCTG) from Mexico and lowered the dumping rate for one company. Tubos de Acero de Mexico received a 1.87% dumping rate for the year ended Oct. 31, 2024. The rate is down notably from 26.1% in the previous year. The all-others cash deposit rate remains set at 44.93%.

    Deacero casts first billet at new Ramos Arizpe mini-mill

    Mexican longs producer Deacero has cast the first billet at its new minimill in Ramos Arizpe, Mexico, moving the Danieli-supplied caster into commissioning. It's a key milestone for Deacero's $600-million Ramos II mini-mill, said Italian plant engineering and equipment provider. "The achievement further strengthens the long-standing collaboration between Deacero and Danieli, and further confirms Danieli’s already-established presence in the Mexican long-products market," the company said in a statement on Nov. 2.

    Commerce lowers Mexico’s dumping rate in CORE case

    The US Department of Commerce has reduced the anti-dumping duty on corrosion-resistant steel (CORE) for some Mexican producers after a court order. On remand from the Court of International Trade (CIT), Commerce agreed that the record did not show that Galvasid SA de CV’s US customers separately negotiated or paid freight or insurance. The agency therefore removed the adjustment and recalculated the margin. As a result, the agency lowered Galvasid’s coated steel dumping rate to 14.54%, from 24.05%. The all-others rate is now 14.29%, down from 17.42%. Ternium’s rate is unchanged at 14.17%.