CRU: Steel prices fall amid global demand weakness 

Chinese steel export prices declined in the past month as the summer lull arrives in the country amid sluggish domestic demand conditions. Tax-evading shipments at lower price levels were still available in the market and added downward pressure on the overall price level.

In parallel, inquiries from Vietnam reduced amid anticipations that the Vietnamese government would add wider hot-rolled (HR) coils from China to the list of products subject to anti-dumping duties.

In Southeast Asia, steel prices in key import markets declined by $14 per mt (mt) m/m on average, as regional demand remained weak.

In Japan, sheet export prices remained stable, while plate export prices declined $80/mt m/m, adjusting downwards after the spike in May amid weak demand in key destination markets. 

Indian HR coil export prices fell by $15/mt over the past month. Despite the decline, Indian HR coil was outpriced by offers from other Asian suppliers as competition increased both in the APAC region and in key destination markets. As a result, export volumes from India decreased in the past month, while steel import volumes into the country increased despite the 12% safeguard duty introduced in April.

Competitive import offers continue to enter the European market

In Europe, domestic steel prices declined further over the past month amid weak regional demand and increased interest in competitive import offers. HR coil offers from Indonesia at €470 (USD$542)/mt CIF South Europe continued to gain ground across the European market.

In parallel, Turkey supplied to the European market more than 500,000 mt of HR coil to date under the Q2 safeguard quota (see here CRU’s safeguard quota data tracker). Turkish HR coils delivered to Southern Europe were assessed this week at a discount of $75/mt, duties included, to the locally supplied sheet (please see CRU’s GSTS pdf for more information on landed import prices).

Another factor driving import bookings in Europe is Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism’s (CBAM’s) implementation from Q1’26. Some buyers are increasing import volumes now in anticipation of possible disruptions or additional costs under the new regime.

In the meantime, Turkish export activity reduced over the past weeks amid low demand in key export markets, while the recent conflict between Israel and Iran has put market players in a wait-and-see mode.

US Section 232 tariffs doubled from 25% to 50%

On June 4, Section 232 tariffs on steel imports increased from 25% to 50% (see related Insight here), reversing the downward trend in the US domestic sheet prices as buyers largely returned to the market.

Rebar import volumes into the US trended lower m/m as import prices reached near parity with domestic prices. In parallel, the Rebar Trade Action Coalition and its individual members filed for an anti-dumping case against Algeria, Bulgaria, Egypt, and Vietnam.

This piece was first published by CRU. To learn about CRU’s global commodities research and analysis services, visit www.crugroup.com.