Galvanized steel demand unsteady amid lingering buyer fatigue: HARDI 

SMU provides sheet updates to the council of wholesalers, service centers, distributors, and manufacturers who buy or sell galvanized steel at each month’s call.  

“I think no one really knows what to make of this market,” said one executive at an HVAC supplier. 

The also noted the latest curveball: a conflict in the Middle East.  

“We’re barely in the $50s [hundredweight], and we now have 50% tariffs. It’s an uncertain market. There are a lot of fundamentals that would typically put prices above where people would expect them to be. It just speaks to subpar demand,” the HVAC executive said. 

Tariff uncertainty remains a primary concern. Buyers have opted for caution as they wait to see how long a 50% Section 232 tariff will be applied to imports. In the meantime, they are “buying only what’s needed when it’s available,” he said.

“May saw lower demand across all segments, and June has picked up a bit. We are definitely surprised by the continuation of black swan events and how they’ve not triggered more demand or more pulling forward of demand,” a service center executive said. 

He continued, “I think buyers are fatigued right now.” 

Another service center executive told the group that mills are mostly delivering on time and that inventory levels remain balanced. He predicted that pricing would remain relatively flat through the summer.  

“The last week or so has been a little quiet compared to what we had in May. I would say overall our inventory levels are good. Overall volume has been steady. Since lead times are short and we’re able to get steel, centers can just wait for stuff to come in,” the second service center source said. 

“I think pricing is going to just bounce in a fairly steady range for a while until we see whether buyers begin to purchase onshore again. I don’t know what will do that. You would think a 50% tariff would, but we are not seeing that reflected in the mill books yet,” he said. 

A fabricator executive stated that customers are become numb to steel news and are purchasing only as needed. 

“They’re not confident enough that the president is going to stick with tariffs this time around. And there is enough supply to absorb any demand punches that come through,” he said.  

In an informal poll conducted at the close of the call, most participants saw prices remaining relatively flat, give or take $2/cwt for the next 30 days. Callers expect base prices to increase by more than $2/cwt in the next six months. And the majority of callers expect prices to be in the $50s/cwt a year from now.

Executives also considered what might happen with the price gap between hot-rolled coil and galvanized steel base prices. That spread has been roughly $10/cwt for most of the post-pandemic market. But that figure has narrowed more recently to pre-pandemic levels of approximately $7-/cwt.

SMU participates in a monthly steel conference call hosted by HARDI and dedicated to better understanding the galvanized steel market. The participants are HARDI member companies, wholesalers who supply products to the construction markets. Also on the call are service centers and manufacturing companies that either buy or sell galvanized sheet and coil products used in the HVAC industry and are suppliers to HARDI member companies.