Hot-rolled coil market remains slow, market participants say

‘Eerie consistency in an inconsistent market’ 

One executive for a large distribution company said that the steady market is uncharacteristic of the general steel market’s nature. 

“Things are eerily staying consistent, which is inconsistent for the steel market. That includes demand and pricing,” he said.  

A lot of the consistency might stem from tariffs, which have led to lower import volumes – and given mills a stronger hand than they’d typically hold in a weak market.

“As long as imports are continually adversely impacted by tariffs, mills should be able to keep the prices elevated, even with muted demand,” the distributor executive said. 

A mid-sized distributor in the Midwest had similar takeaways about this week’s market conditions. 

“We’re seeing no changes in prices, lead times, or demand—which is weak at best,” he said.  

An East Coast service center source echoed the assessments of the other participants. 

“Still flat this week. But with Canada less involved in the US market, I can’t see prices decreasing anytime soon,” he said.  

Hopeful for market dynamism in H2’25

One sentiment remained consistent throughout the week among participants: They expect more clarity in the coming weeks. Essentially, HR market participants of all stripes are unclear about the second half of the year but are hoping for significant improvement.

For example, progress on trade talks is a step in the right direction. If trade deals are finalized, it should give the entire supply chain more clarity to understand their needs, and therefore, pricing. 

“Late August … I believe will become clearer. I believe there will be some level of confidence to have projects move forward,” said a respondent to SMU’s survey, who said they expected more clarity by then both on trade talks and on interest rates.

Many sources said US government actions that will play the largest role in influencing the market.  

“We don’t see any major changes on the horizon unless the government makes some moves,” said on HR buyer.

Not everyone is convinced 2H will be better.

A second Midwest service center, for example, said he didn’t expect any significant change until 2026. “I don’t think we are going to see significant demand in the fall. The holiday period is not a time when we expect a great increase in demand,” he said.  

The average price of hot rolled coil is currently $830/st according to the latest SMU assessment. We’ll next update prices on Tuesday evening. You can find all of our prices in our interactive pricing tool here.