• Skip to main content

    Prices

    August 7, 2025

    HR Futures: Rangebound amid muted summer trade

    Written by Mark Novakovich

    Since our last writing of this article, CME hot-rolled coil (HRC) futures have been largely steady and lifeless, though there’s been some brief bouts of intraday volatility. The front end of the curve has firmed slightly, but on light volumes, and the overall curve shape through 2026 is rather flat.

    The Nov’25 CME HRC futures, a good proxy for Q4, has rallied $15 per short ton (st) since the end of June to settle most recently at $855/st.

    Mark Novakovich

    Mark works at Crunch Risk LLC. He has nearly 20 years experience working in physical and financial commodity markets in various roles, including risk management, logistics, and trading. Most recently, Mark worked for S&P Global’s commodity division in sales and product development, where he was responsible for creating price benchmarks and financially-settled futures contracts.

    Read more from Mark Novakovich

    Latest in Prices

    Plate supply squeeze tightens as demand presses higher

    The domestic plate market is showing few signs of relief for steel buyers. Lead times are stretching well beyond seasonal norms, spot availability has all but evaporated, and mills are drawing hard lines on contract volumes heading into 2027 negotiations. And the supply squeeze will likely intensify in a market that some industry sources say is structurally undersupplied because of stringent US trade and tariff policies. Imports have been arriving in larger volumes, and the expectation is they will continue to tick higher into 2027. The big question is whether those foreign tons will arrive in volumes sufficient to provide the relief steel consumers want.