Economy

Hot-rolled spot market conditions linger, prices slip
Written by Kristen DiLandro
August 14, 2025
Market participants said they have high hopes that the stable hot-rolled spot market will improve as the year rolls on.
Spot inquiries, sales, and stocks maintained their respective rhythms again this week, sources said.
Negotiations could restore steel consumer confidence
A Midwest-based service center operator stated that the market remains quiet, and he wonders whether the stability around tariff negotiations will unfreeze frightened buyers.
“Things are the same as last week. Lead-times are the same and pricing seems very soft. Our business is about the same as last year at this time which is nothing to brag about,” he said.
“Maybe finalizing the tariffs will make people more confident to buy,” he added.
One Ohio Valley-based distributor agreed that tariff uncertainties were partially (at least) a culprit for current conditions.
“I think prices will recover now that reciprocal tariffs are being set, and lack of competitive imports will push up mill prices. Canada and Mexico are key, and not sure if anything will change on their 50% section 232 tariff yet, but if it lowers, then prices might erode.”
Participants noted that once tariff negotiations are complete and a floor is in place, mills can price effectively, and buyers will get more clarity.
“Lower imports will help prices a bit despite issues on the demand side,” stated an HR distributor.
While a service center sales associate stated, “With tariffs in place the domestic mills are enjoying a competitive advantage as Trump works to rebuild domestic manufacturing. I don’t think mills are going to push the envelope too far.”
Market participants are ready for activity
A distributor, also located in the Midwest, contends that the market is ready for more activity.
“The market is full of enthusiasm waiting for the action to start. Prices could increase if the market allows it, that is, if core industries get busier. I think there is a strong possibility they will too; if not this year, definitely in early ‘26,” he said.
One West Coast located distributor does not purchase HR after September and says a domestic mill offered them a deal a few months ago that has kept them with inventory. The distributor is drawing down inventory.
“We haven’t bought any HRC in a month or so since we decided to load up when [domestic mill] made us a deal we couldn’t refuse. We’re winding down our buying for our year at end of September,” he stated.
According to this week’s SMU price assessment, the average HR spot price decreased by $10/short ton this week to $820 per short ton (st), down $60/st over the past six weeks. In the equivalent week of 2024, average HR prices were $665/st.
All prices are ex-works, domestic mill, unless otherwise specified.

Kristen DiLandro
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