Analysis

HR buyers report mixed market conditions
Written by Kristen DiLandro
September 19, 2025
Hot-rolled coil market participants said they’re staying on their toes amid a market that continues to be characterized by uncertainty.
A veteran Midwest-based service center operator contends that current conditions are unprecedentedly volatile. Being flexible with customers and strategic with mills is the only way to navigate through the uncertainty, he said.
“No one wants to stick their necks out right now. Drawing up contracts with our customers might not make sense for them or us, because the prices are so volatile,” he said.
He said mills are still willing to negotiate lower prices on standard products even as they’re holding the line on more niche items.
The same source said prices and sales have not bounced back after Labor Day weekend. “It’s not as busy as we would like it to be. Not like past years, but we are getting some sales,” he said.
On tariffs, the source stated, “When the US has added tariffs in the past or then taken them off, it still wasn’t as risky as it is now.”
A different service center source in the same region said the market is not easily characterized.
“Margins are down since the price continues to drop,” he said. But, “overall, we are 20% ahead of last year, regarding tons shipped – which is good.”
The same source expects his mill contract terms for next to resemble those he had this year.
“We have no doubt that we will receive the same or close to the same offer as we had last year for CRU-minus pricing and possible tonnage rebates. I don’t think the tariffs have affected anything” in regards to contract negotiations, the second Midwest source said.
A West Coast service center source found prices and sales to be consistent.
“Our sales have been pretty good over the last week. We have several accounts that are busy. … We can’t complain. We’ll always take more. But right now, business is pretty steady,” he said.
Pricing background
SMU adjusted its weekly price assessment for hot-rolled coil to $785 per short ton (st) on average on Sept. 16, down $10/st from the previous week. That said, HR is up nearly $100/st from $690/st on average a year ago, according to SMU’s pricing tool.
We will next update prices on Tuesday, Sept. 23.
Kristen DiLandro
Read more from Kristen DiLandroLatest in Analysis
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