Steel market chatter this week 

Before sharing your thoughts, here are some key themes our internal AI tool identified from analyzing your survey responses: 

• Predominantly bullish — Modest to strong upward pressure short term. Most respondents expect prices to rise. Many cite mill pushes, limited capacity, and large orders as drivers. 

• Stable, but weak underlying demand — Price moves are not being driven by robust end‑market buying; buyers lack cashflow; activity is patchy; and purchases are often reactive to price/index moves rather than steady demand. 

• Inventory moving, but slowly —  Most respondents report a “slower” market or note a concrete slowdown due to seasonal factors like the weather or fewer working days due to holidays. 

• Tariffs remain only marginally helpful — A large share of respondents are “not sure” about the policies’ net effects. That suggests the impact is mixed by company, product, or timing (some may see cost pressures, others modest protection), or respondents lack visibility into downstream effects. 

Do you want to share your thoughts? Contact david@steelmarketupdate.com to be included in our market questionnaires. 

How do you expect prices to trend over the next 3 months, and why? 

“Prices will trend up for the next 60 days, but I’m not sure this current push by the mills will last into February.” 

“We realize there is some pressure and talk of upward movement in pricing, but we just don’t see it (due to demand). We expect pricing to go down from here.” 

“It will remain flat through the end of the year and then will increase, as usual. I don’t think there will be any major movements as demand continues to be a bit suppressed.” 

“I can’t see prices going much higher due to average demand and plenty of domestic capacity.” 

“Prices are up because the mills are pushing for it.” 

“Prices will continue to escalate.” 

“I expect lead times to get shorter in Q1 as mills struggle to keep this big run-up in price sticking. Once they get through Q1 contract orders, they will eventually get hungry again.” 

“Slowly increasing.” 

“Up and up, due to lots of big orders.” 

“Plate will go up.” 

“Slightly upward.” 

“Increase then level off.” 

Is demand improving, declining or stable, and why? 

Of respondents, 41% said demand remains stable, while 40% believe the market is improving. The remaining 19% say that demand is declining.  

“Flat to slightly down. Price increases are not being driven by robust demand.” 

“Demand seems to be stable, but still at crappy levels. We don’t hear of anyone (outside of maybe data centers) who is really busy.” 

“Stable for 2025, but forecasts are quickly gaining positive movement for early 2026.” 

“Stable to improving in the plate market.” 

“Declining due to a poor economy and tariffs.” 

“Declining – seasonal factors.” 

“Stable, some buyers who can pull forward some are, but most don’t have the cashflow to pull forward significantly.” 

“Business had been fairly strong for the last few months, but I’m seeing a slowdown this month.” 

Is inventory moving faster or slower than last year and why? 

Respondents mostly (56%) said inventory was moving more slowly than last year. The remaining respondents claimed inventory was moving at the same rate as 2024. No one said inventory was moving more quickly.

“Slower” 

“Everything is about the same.” 

“Typical.” 

“Steel is slower aluminum is moving faster.” 

“Slower, few orders.” 

“Inventory seems to be moving slower, but the holidays are here.” 

Are imports more attractive vs. domestic material? Why or why not? 

The majority of respondents agreed that imports are not attractive. Even when prices are reasonable, survey explanations noted long lead times and logistical hurdles as deterrents from purchasing imports.

“No… they’re too much of a hassle unless it’s for a niche product.” 

“Import pricing is looking good, but lead times are too long. I am curious to see if imports from Canada or Mexico come back in eventually with a fury.” 

“Yes, imports are priced better in spite of tariffs.” 

“No, the market is too volatile.” 

“Imports not attractive.” 

“No, due to long lead times” 

“Only on painted light-gauge .011.” 

“No, but we will see if the Q1 run-up sticks.” 

“No, due to tariffs.” 

Do you have any recent import offers or transactions to report on either sheet or plate?

Almost half of the survey respondents skipped this question (56%). Thirty-seven percent of respondents said they either do not purchase imports, are reviewing offers but aren’t sure, or simply “no” they are not importing. The remaining 7% said they have seen import offers.

“No.”

“Nothing at this time.” 

“Reviewing, but nothing firm.” 

“No. If the trade deal with the UK is actually confirmed, we might see some British material coming in at a ‘fair’price. The rest is not affordable.” 

“Yes, not acting on them.” 

“Yes.” 

Are President Trump’s tariff policies helping your business? Why or why not? 

Most respondents feel that President Trump’s tariffs policies are not helping their businesses (52%). Another 41% said they are not sure. Seven percent of respondents did not answer the question. No one responded in the affirmative.

“They are hurting our business. Section 232 tariffs raising import prices and higher costs for US companies and mfg. will make everything cost more. Reciprocal tariffs raising costs and hurting demand.“

“Prices are remaining higher as a result of tariffs, but impact to demand depends on your lens.”

“We’ve all said it here before, but they’ve created so much worry and unease, that they’re bad for us all.“

Are you seeing evidence of manufacturing reshoring to the US because of Trump’s tariffs? If yes, where? If no, why not?

Over half of respondents (52%) answered simply, “No.” Over 33% say it is too early to tell whether reshoring because of tariffs is happening. A handful of respondents (5%) say they see evidence.

“There are headlines and promises of spending, but have we actually seen new shovels in the ground? I would say, ‘No.'”

“OEMs are waiting to see the results of the supreme court case, and even with that it is hard to act with any certainty.”

“I’m hearing more of reshoring than actually seeing it in our sales.“

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?

“There has been some fun and ‘big boy’ M&A news on the steel service center side. I expect there to be more.”

“Mill increases can only do so much. Eventually, we need demand to significantly rebound in manufacturing, commercial or residential construction, or automotive. At best, these have stabilized but nothing is significantly bullish given the massive concentration of data center spending being the only domestic vertical with any velocity. Everything else is still stuck in the mud, but at least not sinking any longer.“

“It sure seems that some of the excess capacity will have to be reduced.“

“The price increases, due to outages, will be short-lived if Q1 doesn’t kick in hard.“