Manufacturers/End Users
August 14, 2026
Shipments of heating and cooling equipment pick up in June
Written by Laura Miller
Total shipments of heating and cooling equipment improved 10% from May to June, according to the latest figures from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). The improved month-on-month (m/m) pace also marks the highest shipment rate of the past two years.
Historically, shipments are strongest in the early summer months and weakest around the turn of the year, impacted by seasonal air conditioner and heat pump volumes.
June shipments totaled over 2.15 million units, a 10% month-on-month increase and a 13% year-over-year rise (Figure 1, left). Shipments rose m/m across product categories, with warm air furnaces showing a 20% m/m jump. Y/y shipments were also higher across products, with air conditioning/heat pumps 22% higher y/y.
To smooth out seasonal variations, shipments can be annualized using a 12-month moving average (12MMA). On this basis, shipments reversed trend m/m in June, growing to nearly 1.70 million units (Figure 1, right). Compared to last year, the 12MMA is down 9%.
Shipments rise across product lines
- Shipments of water heaters rose 4% from May to 809,019 units in June, the third-highest total so far this year. Compared to June 2025, shipments were 3% higher.
- Warm-air furnace shipments shot up 20% m/m and 15% y/y to 322,451 units in June. Monthly shipments were the highest in nearly four years.
- Shipments of air conditioners and heat pumps, at more than 1.02 million units, showed an 11% m/m increase and a 22% y/y jump. Note these product shipments are highly seasonal, as shown in Figure 2.
Annual comparison
Figure 3 shows the annual growth rate of shipments by product on a 12MMA basis. From this perspective, annualized shipments are down for all three product groups:
- Annualized air conditioner and heat pump shipments were down 17% y/y, the tenth consecutive month to see negative growth.
- Annual warm-air furnace shipments were down 5% compared to the same period last year. This marked the fifth straight month of negative annual growth, a trend that has been edging lower over the past year.
- Water heater shipments saw negative growth for the sixth consecutive month in June, down 2% y/y. This rate has trended steadily lower since peaking in mid-2024.
