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    AMU Summit: China nears production cap, but increases can still happen

    Written by Stephanie Ritenbaugh


    This piece was first published by Aluminum Market Update (AMU), SMU’s nonferrous sister publication. To learn about AMU, visit their website or sign up for a free trial.

    China is bumping up against its official primary aluminum production capacity limit of 45.3 million metric tons/year, but production can still increase through “capacity creep.”

    Stephanie Ritenbaugh

    Read more from Stephanie Ritenbaugh

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    AMU: Edward Meir’s week in review and thoughts for the week of Oct. 12, 2026

    Base metals had a mixed week. Tin lost almost 4% on the week, finishing at $53,000/ton. Prices dropped to a low of $51,259/ton at one point. Aluminum was another loser, off by about 1.6% on the week. Investors are expecting more aluminum supply going forward, especially out of China and Indonesia. Copper prices tacked on 1.1%. They have now recovered more than half of the $700/ton loss sustained (over the course of a week) following reports/rumors in mid-September that US tariffs on refined copper imports might not proceed after all.