SMU Data and Models

SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index 3MMA Sets New Highs

March 23, 2017

Steel Market Update concluded our analysis of the flat rolled steel markets earlier today. One of the proprietary products produced out of our twice monthly analysis is the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index which consists of Current and Future Sentiment Indices.

Our Current Sentiment Index as a single data point came in at +73. This is down 4 points from the +77 reported at the beginning of the month. Our Current Sentiment Index has consistently been over +70 for the past three months. Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel continue to be very optimistic about their companies’ ability to be successful in the existing or current market environment.

Our preference is to smooth out the data we receive so that we can present a better view of the over-all trend for the market. We do this by using a three-month moving average (3MMA). Our 3MMA for Current Sentiment is +73.50 which is the highest it has ever been improving on the +73.0 reported at the beginning of the month of March 2017.

Future Sentiment Also Setting New Record Highs

Future Sentiment is how buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful three to six months out into the future. As a single data point our Future Sentiment Index came in at +71. This is a very optimistic single data point even if it is 2 points lower than the beginning of the month and 4 points below the all-time high set during the middle of February market trends analysis.

Looking at the data from a three-month moving average (3MMA) Future Sentiment was determined to be +73.67 up slightly from the 73.50 reported at the beginning of the month. The trend line continues to move higher and the +73.67 is a record high for our Future Sentiment Index.

What Our Respondents Are Saying

“Business in some of our markets are slower than expected. Margins are getting squeezed.” Manufacturing company

“Work still is getting done in spite of mixed signals from the government.” Supplier to the Industry

“Started the month strong fizzling now because of a low inventory.” Service center

“Last burst of cold weather has slowed our northern plants.” Manufacturing company

“We still see competitors price well below replacement cost.” Service center

“We always explore the buy options. if you buy it right its half sold.” Service center

About the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index

SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index is a measurement of the current attitude of buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel products in North America regarding how they feel about their company’s opportunity for success in today’s market. It is a proprietary product developed by Steel Market Update for the North American steel industry.

Positive readings will run from +10 to +100 and the arrow will point to the right hand side of the meter located on the Home Page of our website indicating a positive or optimistic sentiment.

Negative readings will run from -10 to -100 and the arrow will point to the left hand side of the meter on our website indicating negative or pessimistic sentiment.

A reading of “0” (+/- 10) indicates a neutral sentiment (or slightly optimistic or pessimistic) which is most likely an indicator of a shift occurring in the marketplace.

Readings are developed through Steel Market Update market surveys which are conducted twice per month. We display the index reading on a meter on the Home Page of our website for all to enjoy.

Currently, we send invitations to participate in our survey to almost 600 North American companies. Our normal response rate is approximately 110-170 companies. Of those responding to this week’s survey, 41 percent were manufacturing and 46 percent were service centers/distributors. The balance of the respondents are made up of steel mills, trading companies, and toll processors involved in the steel business.

Click here to view an interactive graphic of the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index or the SMU Future Steel Buyers Sentiment Index.