Economy
Forecasts Predict Tax Cuts, GDP Growth
Written by Tim Triplett
September 25, 2017
Congress and the Trump administration are likely to act on both tax reform and infrastructure spending before the end of 2018, predict the majority of forecasters polled by the National Association of Business Economics.
NABE conducted its September survey of 47 professional forecasters from Aug. 24 to Sept. 7 (during Hurricane Harvey and before Hurricane Irma). Seventy-three percent anticipate corporate and individual tax cuts by the end of next year. Sixty-one percent expect an infrastructure spending plan by late 2018.
The forecasters were divided on their views of NAFTA. About one-third (34 percent) believe the renegotiation of NAFTA will yield at least a marginal net benefit to the U.S. economy. A slightly smaller number (27 percent) feel it will have a negative net impact, while 30 percent expect no net impact at all.
Looking at the broader economy, the panelists forecast a real GDP growth rate of 2.2 percent this year, accelerating to 2.4 percent in 2018. Their expectations for nonfarm employment growth call for a slight deceleration through 2018. The median forecast for the annual unemployment rate shows a decline to 4.4 percent in 2017 and to 4.2 percent in 2018, both below the actual 4.9 percent rate in 2016.
The panelists believe a recession is highly unlikely next year. Nearly three-quarters (74 percent) place the odds of a recession in 2018 at 25 percent or lower. The remaining 26 percent see less than a 50 percent chance for a recession next year.
Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in Economy
Fed Beige Book: Economy improves, but manufacturing weak
While general economic conditions across the US improved slightly over the last six weeks, activity in the manufacturing sector was weak, according to the Fed’s latest Beige Book report.
SMU Community Chat: Simonson with the latest on construction
A lot of economists were predicting a recession last year. Ken Simonson, chief economist for The Associated General Contractors of America (AGC), wasn’t one of them.
Housing starts slip to seven-month low in March
Following a strong February, US housing starts eased through March to a seven-month low, according to the most recent data from the US Census Bureau.
Manufacturing activity in New York state continues to soften
New York state saw a continued decline in manufacturing activity in April, according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Worldsteel projects steel demand to grow 1.7% this year
Global steel demand will reach roughly 1.793 million metric tons (1.976 million short tons) this year, an increase of 1.7% over 2023, the World Steel Association (worldsteel) said in its updated Short Range Outlook report. The gain will come after a 0.5% contraction in steel demand in 2023. Demand is forecasted to increase another 1.2% […]