Final Thoughts
Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.
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Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.
The market appears to be pausing after a turbulent run. But tension remains just beneath the surface. With net long positioning still elevated, sentiment-driven selling could quickly reignite volatility. Still, supply constraints and limited imports are laying the groundwork for a resilient physical market. This moment of calm feels more like a crossroads than a conclusion.
Nearly 50% of respondents to our latest survey thought hot-rolled coil prices have already peaked. And where will those prices be two months from now? Responses were decidedly split on that question.
The HRC vs. prime scrap spread increased again in March.
Domestic shredded scrap has experienced a renaissance in pricing since January. And that increase had caused traditional exporters to ship their material to domestic users instead of overseas.
But with recent changes, this cycle may end with the resurgence of export demand and continued foreign exchange fluctuations.
In the final week of February, SMU polled steel and scrap executives to gather their insights on the current state of the scrap market as well as future projections.