SMU Data and Models

Mill Lead Times Stretch & Mill Willingness to Negotiate Pricing Shrinks
Written by John Packard
November 7, 2013
According to our latest steel market survey results, lead times have begun to move out on all of the flat rolled products scrutinized by Steel Market Update.
Hot rolled lead times extended from 4.07 weeks to 4.36 weeks, cold rolled moved from 6.10 weeks to 6.38 weeks, galvanized moved from 6.26 weeks to 6.39 weeks and Galvalume went from 6.56 weeks to 6.77 weeks. All of the data shown are averages of the data collected during the survey which just concluded earlier today.
One year ago the same items lead times were referenced as follows: HRC = 3.72 weeks, CRC = 5.45 weeks, HDG = 6.09 weeks and AZ = 7.17 weeks.
Lengthening lead times provided strength to mill negotiations as our survey respondents reported less willingness to negotiate spot prices at the domestic steel mills. As you can see by the graphic below the percentage of respondents reporting mills as willing to negotiate pricing were as follows: hot rolled dropped to 29 percent, cold rolled was the lowest at 21 percent and galvanized the highest at 39 percent. Galvalume was reported to have dropped to 27 percent.

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models

Steelmaking raw material costs mixed through May
According to our latest analysis, prices for four of the seven steelmaking raw materials we track increased from April to May. However, select materials saw a collective 1% decline month over month and are down 4% compared to three months ago.

SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment tumbles as caution increases
SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices resumed their downward trend this week, erasing the modest recovery seen two weeks ago.

Service centers: Mill orders down further in April
SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) declined for a second straight month in April after repeated gains at the start of the year, according to our latest service center inventories data.

SMU Survey: Mill lead times edge lower
Sheet and plate lead times declined across the board this week, according to buyers responding to the latest SMU market survey. While our lead time ranges were unchanged compared to mid-April levels, average production times for each steel product we measure have declined from they were two weeks ago.

SMU Survey: Most buyers say price negotiations back on the table
Domestic mills are largely negotiable on spot prices, according to the majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey.