Futures

HRC Futures Pull Back as Market Appears Toppy…
Written by Bradley Clark
November 21, 2013
After weeks of ascending prices, the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market has taken a breather in the last couple of days. Prices have retreated by about $5-10/ton down the curve as a weaker than expected Wednesday brought in several new sellers to the market.
November and December periods remain well bid around $660 but, as you move further down the curve, offers are reaching down. Q1 has traded at $650 and is offered over there while Q2 and Q3 are offered at $637 and Q4 at $630. The calendar year 2014 contract traded at $640 with an offer to repeat. As spot prices remain firm, the shift to more bearish sentiment on paper indicates some in the market think prices may be a bit toppy.
While the futures market is weaker, the physical market remains well supported around $660-680 as lead times are pushing into January at some mills.
Volumes have remained healthy over the past week with over 20,000 tons trading.
{amchart id=”73″ HRC Futures Forward Curve}
U.S. Midwest #1 Busheling Ferrous Scrap (AMM) Prices Stagnant Mid-Month
The busheling futures market remained very quiet the past couple of weeks as the mid-month lull in activity in the physical market continues to weigh on the terminal market. It is too early to call how things will materialize in December, however, initial sentiment is that we may see pricing flat to up $10. The futures market continues to suffer from a lack of liquidity and trading activity as market participants have yet to adopt it as a way to hedge price and manage risk.
Again, there have been no reported trades this past week.
{amchart id=”74″ BUS Futures Forward Curve}
Bradley Clark
Read more from Bradley ClarkLatest in Futures

HR Futures: Market blues turn bearish
The cautious neutrality and summertime blues we discussed just a few weeks ago have evolved into something decidedly more bearish.

HR Futures: Curve switches gears
After a period of backwardation driven by headlines and CRU index anchoring, the CME HRC curve structure has undergone a notable shift.

HR Futures: Summer doldrums prevail
Not much to report on from the sleepy HRC futures market in the thick of the summer doldrums with trading volume nearly grinding to a halt.

HR Futures: Summertime blues
Coming out of the holiday market and long weekend, it seems the HRC futures market has caught some post-vacation blues.

HR Futures: Financial players bullish on price, physical market participants not
We can interpret that managed money still has expectations of price strength while physical participants are running closer to a balance on a net basis.