SMU Data and Models

SMU Survey Power Point Available

January 29, 2014

Late last week Steel Market Update concluded our mid-January market survey of the flat rolled steel market in Canada and the United States. The survey is conducted by invitation only and is sent to slightly less than 600 companies.

The breakout of the respondents was: 48 percent manufacturing companies, 42 percent service centers/wholesalers, 5 percent trading companies, 3 percent steel mills and one percent each toll processor and suppliers to the industry.

The results of the survey are posted on line and available to our Premium Level members.

Highlights of the survey include:

SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment index at the highest levels seen since early 2012.

Demand growth is slightly better than what was measured in December.

The industry expects flat rolled prices to move sideways (55 percent), compared to 37 percent believing prices will move lower and 8 percent who believe prices will move higher from here.

Manufacturing companies are reporting demand for their products is increasing and are much more optimistic than what we saw in early December.

Inventories appear to be fairly balanced at both the manufacturing and service centers.

Service center inventories where reported (averaged) at 2.25 months down slightly from the 2.3 months recorded at the beginning of January. MSCI data is at 2.1 months on a seasonally adjusted basis and 2.6 months unadjusted.

Twenty-five percent of manufacturing companies and 34 percent of service centers reported the domestic mills as delivering orders late.

Both manufacturing companies and service centers reported mill lead times as shorter than normal at much higher percentages than what we saw at the beginning of the month.

Both manufacturing companies and distributors believe the spread between foreign and domestic pricing is wide enough to justify buying foreign steel.

We continue to see higher percentages than normal in both manufacturers and distributors who are entering new foreign orders right now.

We asked our respondents how many of them would be increasing the percentage of foreign vs. domestic inventory during the 1st Quarter 2014. Forty-six percent of the manufacturing companies and 33 percent of the service centers reported their foreign inventories will be rising.