To the surprise of many — myself included — flat-rolled steel prices appear to be in a holding pattern… again. This is not familiar territory for hot-rolled (HR) coil, at least not over the past few years. Its pricing volatility (as my colleague Michael Cowden has noted in past columns) may rival the elastic moves […]
Flat Rolled = 58.3 shipping days of supply Plate = 60.6 shipping days of supply Flat Rolled US service center flat-rolled steel inventories edged up in March as shipments remained low. At the end of March, service centers carried 58.3 shipping days of supply on an adjusted basis, up from 56.6 shipping days in February. […]
You might have noticed that SMU has been publishing more articles about scrap in recent months. That was no accident. In fact, we’ve found enough of an audience that CRU, our parent company, has decided to launch a new publication – Recycled Metals Update, or RMU. It cover both ferrous and nonferrous scrap. RMU’s website is here. You can go there now and request a 30-day free trial. It’s that simple.
Galvanized buyers reported solid demand and balanced inventories this week and were anticipating the sheet price increase announced by Cleveland-Cliffs on Wednesday.
I’ve had questions from some of you lately about how we should think of the spread between hot-rolled (HR) coil prices and those for cold-rolled (CR) and coated product. Let’s assume that mills are intent on holding the line at least at $800 per short ton (st) for HR. The norm for HR-CR/coated spreads had been about $200 per short ton (st). That would suggest CR and coated base prices should be ~$1,000/st. Good luck finding anyone offering that.
SMU’s price for hot-rolled (HR) inched lower this week. I wouldn’t be surprised, however, if we start to see prices and lead times move higher in the weeks ahead. The modest declines in HR this week are probably the result of lingering deals cut at “old” prices, as sometimes happens after mill price increases. But those deals will probably be out of the market soon if they aren’t already. So why do I float the idea of higher prices? Some big buys have been placed. It reminds me a little of what we saw last fall, when people restocked in anticipation of higher prices once the UAW strike was resolved.
The CRUspi fell by 8.3% month over month (m/m) in March to 206.6 as weaker-than-expected demand weighed on markets around the world. Price falls were notable across all regions, with elevated inventory levels pushing prices in the US and Europe, and disappointing stimulus measures from the Chinese government weighing on those in Asia.
A Detroit-area mill entered the scrap market on Thursday offering down $70 per gross ton (gt) on #1 busheling. And Nucor announced a minimum base price of $825 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled (HR) coil. What's the best way to interpret would could be read as contradictory trends?
Sheet and plate prices this week continued the downward trend they’ve been on for most of 2024. Some market sources predicted that a wave of spring maintenance outages would help to stabilize lead times and prices in the weeks ahead – especially should service center inventories, high at the beginning of the year, come down meaningfully.
US hot-rolled (HR) coil prices have fallen further this week, working their way to $800 per short ton (st) on average – a mark not seen since late October.
US hot-rolled (HR) coil prices have fallen below $900 per short ton (st) on average for the first time since early November. SMU’s HR price stands at $875/st on average, down $65/st from a week ago and down $170/st from the beginning of the year.
What's the steel market talking about at present?
What a difference a month makes. There are a few full bulls left in the room, but their numbers are dwindling. We’ll release results of our full steel market survey tomorrow afternoon. I took a sneak peak at the data on Thursday. And more people than I expected think that US hot-rolled (HR) coil prices will be in the $700s per short ton (st) two months from now. Vanishingly few think prices will be above $1,000/st in mid-April.
Flat Rolled = 60.3 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 63.4 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled US service center flat-rolled steel supply declined in January, though less than expected because of a weaker-than-normal seasonal increase in shipments to start the year. At the end of January, service centers carried 60.3 shipping days of supply […]
This latest SMU steel market survey is a snapshot of a sheet market inflecting lower. A significant 43% of survey respondents said that the hot-rolled (HR) coil market has already peaked. Compare that to only 8% when we released our last steel market survey on Jan. 5.
US service center flat-rolled steel inventories surged in December with the seasonal slowdown in shipments. At the end of December, service centers carried 64.8 shipping days of supply, according to adjusted SMU data, up from 54 days in November.
Flat Rolled = 54.0 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 61.7 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled After three months of inventory cuts, US service center flat-rolled steel inventories grew in November as shipments slowed. At the end of November, service centers carried 54 shipping days of flat-rolled steel supply on an adjusted basis, up […]
Thursday felt eerily quiet after a frenzy of steel and financial market news on Wednesday.
Flat Rolled = 52.6 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 61.8 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled US service center flat-rolled steel inventories decreased for a third consecutive month in October. At the end of October, service centers carried 52.6 shipping days of supply, according to adjusted SMU data. This is down from 53.3 shipping […]
Sheet prices are up again. That shouldn’t come as a surprise on the heels of mill price hikes, scrap settling up and expected to move higher over the next few months, and inventories – as our premium subscribers will learn tomorrow – moving lower for a third month.
Steel Dynamics Inc. (SDI) reported a drop in third quarter profits on lower prices for flat-rolled steel as well as for fabricated products.
If you think prices will continue to rise, you might point to longer lead times and stable order entry.
US service center flat-rolled steel inventories declined for a second month as shipping rates picked up in September.
Steel Market Update’s Steel Demand Index remains in contraction territory despite repeated improvements since mid-September, according to our latest survey data.
Flat Rolled = 54.1 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 61.2 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled US service center flat-rolled steel inventories eased back in August with stronger shipments. At the end of August, service centers carried 54.1 shipping days of supply, according to adjusted SMU data, down from 56.1 shipping days of supply […]
Steel Market Update’s Steel Demand Index remains in contraction territory despite marginal improvement, according to our latest survey data.
he latest SMU Market Survey results are now available on our website to all Premium members.
Steel Market Update’s Demand Index is still in contracting territory and moving lower, where it has been for the better part of the past four-plus months, according to the latest survey data.
The latest SMU Market Survey results are now available on our website to all Premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the Pricing and Analysis tab and look under the “Survey Results” section for “Latest Survey Results.” Historical survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if […]
Steel Market Update’s Demand Index remains in contracting territory, where it has been for most of the last four months, according to the latest survey data. While the market did react temporarily in response to mill price hikes in mid-June, apparent demand for flat-rolled steel in the US continues to trend down.