Tag: Service Center Inventories

Which way will the herd move?

SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) declined for a second straight month in April after repeated gains at the start of the year, according to our latest service center inventories data.

Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.

SMU’s Mill Order Index declined in March after repeated gains at the start of the year, according to our latest service center inventories data.

Steel service center shipments and inventories report through March 2024.

Some of you have told me that the current market feels about as crazy as early 2021 when demand snapped back after the initial outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. Others have said it might be more like late February/early March 2022, when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine – and, in the process, caused […]

Flat rolled = 66 shipping days of supply Plate = 54.3 shipping days of supply Flat rolled US service center flat-rolled steel supply declined in January month on month (m/m) but is up about 10% year on year (y/y), according to SMU data. At the end of January, US service centers carried 66 shipping days […]

Flat rolled = 77.1 shipping days of supply Plate = 58.1 shipping days of supply Flat rolled Flat-rolled steel supply at US service centers ballooned in December with higher inventories as well as seasonally lower shipments. At the end of December, service centers carried 77.1 shipping days of flat-rolled steel supply on an adjusted basis, […]

Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive members. For information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, contact info@steelmarketupdate.com. Flat rolled = 61.4 shipping days of supply Plate = 50.5 shipping days of supply Flat rolled Flat-rolled steel supply at US service centers remains seasonally high. November inventories edged down […]

Flat rolled = 63.4 shipping days of supply Plate = 52.4 shipping days of supply Flat rolled shipments and inventories Flat-rolled steel supply at US service centers remains seasonally high. October inventories increased after edging lower in September – a dynamic driven largely by disappointing demand. October’s report reflects lower demand and stable lead times […]

US plate prices are at their lowest level in almost four years, and less than half of what they were when they reached an all-time high of $1,940 per short ton (st) in May 2022.

Flat rolled = 60.8 shipping days of supply Plate = 52.7 shipping days of supply Flat rolled Flat-rolled steel supply at US service centers declined in September, though still seasonally high. September’s report reflects lower demand, stable lead times, and restocking early in the third quarter at a perceived bottom in prices. At the end […]

Cleveland-Cliffs is seeking $750 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled coil. That’s $20/st above where the steelmaker had been. It’s also $30/st above Nucor, which is at $720/st this week. We've seen prices increase incrementally this week. SMU's HR price, for example, stands at $690/st on average, up $5/st from last week. The questions now are whether a number well above $700/st will stick, whether other mills will follow Cliffs, and whether there is enough demand to support higher prices.

Flat rolled = 66.3 shipping days of supply Plate = 57.0 shipping days of supply Flat rolled Flat-rolled steel supply at US service centers grew further in August. The dynamic resulted from some Q3 restocking efforts at a perceived market bottom, met with shorter lead times and weaker demand. At the end of August, service […]

We’re starting to see some impacts of the big trade case filed last week against imports of coated flat-rolled steel from 10 nations. Namely, we’ve heard that a range of traders have stopped offering material from Vietnam. An alleged dumping margin of nearly 160% will do that. Especially amid chatter of critical circumstances.

Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive members. For information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, contact info@steelmarketupdate.com. Flat rolled = 64.2 shipping days of supply Plate = 60.9 shipping days of supply Flat rolled Flat-rolled steel supply at US service centers grew in July with restocking as […]

SSAB said lower plate prices in the US were the primary reason for reduced results in the second quarter. With a dismal Q3 outlook, the Swedish steelmaker is adjusting production across its facilities. That includes moving up its annual US mill outage in anticipation of a better Q4. SSAB Americas Revenues in the Americas segment […]

Cleveland-Cliffs Chairman, President and CEO Lourenco Goncalves had some insightful things to say today about the steel market and about a conference we suspect might be Steel Summit.

I thought we’d have more clarity this week on Section 232, Mexico, and a potential carve-out for steel melted and poured in Brazil. As of right now, the only official comment I have is from the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR).

Flat Rolled = 60.9 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 59 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled US service center flat-rolled steel supply remained high at the end of June at 60.9 shipping days of supply, according to adjusted SMU data. This translates to 3.05 months of supply in June. At the end of May, […]

Flat Rolled = 60.6 Shipping days of supply Plate = 61.1 Shipping days of supply Flat Rolled US service center flat-rolled steel supply rose in May with a drop-off in shipments. At the end of May, service centers carried 60.6 shipping days of supply on an adjusted basis, up from 57.8 shipping days of supply […]

The CRU US Midwest hot-rolled (HR) coil index is a dominant and established price benchmark in the US. Many steel-buying contracts are linked to ‘the CRU,’ as it’s commonly called. But how does it work?

Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive members. For information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, contact info@steelmarketupdate.com. Flat Rolled = 57.8 shipping days of supply Plate = 58.3 shipping days of supply Flat Rolled US service center flat-rolled steel supply edged lower in April, though shipments continue to […]

Our spot price is little changed this week after moving sharply lower last week on the heels of Nucor’s unexpected price cut. Here’s one thought on that trend: Nucor's weekly HR price (aka, its “Consumer Spot Price” or CSP) has to date functioned almost more like a monthly price.

Is it just me, or does it seem like the summer doldrums might have arrived a little early? I could be wrong there. It’s possible we could see a jump in prices should buyers need to step back into the market to restock. I’ll be curious to see what service center inventories are when we update those figures on May 15. In the meantime, just about everyone we survey thinks HR prices have peaked or soon will. (See slide 17 in the April 26 survey.) Lead times have flattened out. And some of you tell me that you’re starting to see signs of them pulling back. (We’ll know more when we update our lead time data on Thursday.)

To the surprise of many — myself included — flat-rolled steel prices appear to be in a holding pattern… again. This is not familiar territory for hot-rolled (HR) coil, at least not over the past few years. Its pricing volatility (as my colleague Michael Cowden has noted in past columns) may rival the elastic moves […]

Flat Rolled = 58.3 shipping days of supply Plate = 60.6 shipping days of supply Flat Rolled US service center flat-rolled steel inventories edged up in March as shipments remained low. At the end of March, service centers carried 58.3 shipping days of supply on an adjusted basis, up from 56.6 shipping days in February. […]

You might have noticed that SMU has been publishing more articles about scrap in recent months. That was no accident. In fact, we’ve found enough of an audience that CRU, our parent company, has decided to launch a new publication – Recycled Metals Update, or RMU. It cover both ferrous and nonferrous scrap. RMU’s website is here. You can go there now and request a 30-day free trial. It’s that simple.

Galvanized buyers reported solid demand and balanced inventories this week and were anticipating the sheet price increase announced by Cleveland-Cliffs on Wednesday.

I’ve had questions from some of you lately about how we should think of the spread between hot-rolled (HR) coil prices and those for cold-rolled (CR) and coated product. Let’s assume that mills are intent on holding the line at least at $800 per short ton (st) for HR. The norm for HR-CR/coated spreads had been about $200 per short ton (st). That would suggest CR and coated base prices should be ~$1,000/st. Good luck finding anyone offering that.