Steel Products Prices North America

SMU Price Ranges & Indices: More Slippage

Written by Brett Linton

February 11, 2014

Perhaps one of my steel sources described the current environment surrounding the flat rolled steel industry best when they said, “Welcome to the Charles Dickens version of the steel industry – ‘It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. It was the season of hope, it was the winter of despair…’ Ask a steel analyst, a mill CEO, a service center executive, and an OEM purchasing agent their take on the steel market and you are likely to hear 5 different stories. If you purchase from a fully integrated mill you are bound to hear something different than if you purchase from a conversion mill. It is hard to decipher whether fundamentals or market psychology are truly driving this market…and even harder to make impacting decisions based on facts (what is really happening) versus noise (what is potentially going to happen).”

A service center executive made similar observations when he told SMU that the market is “breaking for sure” but, at the same time where prices fall “depends on the mill.” The integrated mills have the strongest order books and the firmest of prices. However, one of the integrated mills (AK Steel) was reported to have hot rolled coil to sell for late February/early March and at prices at the lower end of the range. We were told that with “tons” a large hot rolled buyer could purchase material below $630 per ton. However, Steel Market Update does not consider those prices to be available for medium sized customers (at this time).

We have noted slippage in our averages compared to one week ago and earlier this week we took our Price Momentum Indicator from Neutral to Lower. We anticipate flat rolled prices will move lower over the next 30 days.

Here is how we are seeing prices this week:

Hot Rolled Coil: SMU Range is $640-$670 per ton ($32.00/cwt- $33.50/cwt) with an average of $655 per ton ($32.75/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range remained the same compared to last week while the upper end decreased by $10 per ton. Our average is now $5 per ton lower compared to last week. Our expectation is for hot rolled pricing to move lower over the next 30 days.

Hot Rolled Lead Times: 3-6 weeks.

Cold Rolled Coil: SMU Range is $740-$780 per ton ($37.00/cwt- $39.00/cwt) with an average of $760 per ton ($38.00/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range decreased by $10 per ton compared to last week while the upper end decreased by $20 per ton. Our average is now $15 per ton lower compared to last week. SMU anticipates cold rolled prices will move lower over the next 30 days.

Cold Rolled Lead Times: 5-8 weeks.

Galvanized Coil: SMU Base Price Range is $750-$780 per ton ($37.50/cwt- $39.00/cwt) with an average of $765 per ton ($38.00/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range remained the same compared to last week while the upper end decreased by $10 per ton. Our average is now $5 per ton lower compared to last week. SMU anticipates galvanized base prices will trend lower over the next 30 days.

Galvanized .060” G90 Benchmark: SMU Range is $810-$840 per ton with an average of $825 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvanized Lead Times: 4-8 weeks.

Galvalume Coil: SMU Base Price Range is $750-$790 per ton ($37.50/cwt- $39.50/cwt) with an average of $770 per ton ($38.50/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range remained the same compared to last week while the upper end decreased by $10 per ton. Our average is now $5 per ton lower compared to last week. The expectation is for Galvalume prices to move lower over the next 30 days.

Galvalume .0142” AZ50, Grade 80 Benchmark: SMU Range is $1041-$1081 per ton with an average of $1061 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvalume Lead Times: 5-8 weeks.

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Brett Linton

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