Contributor: Brett Linton

Both SMU Sentiment Indices continue to show that buyers remain optimistic for their company’s chances of success, though far less confident than they felt earlier in the year.

The volume of steel shipped outside of the country in June fell 3% from the prior month to 618,000 short tons (st), according to recently released data from the US Department of Commerce.

Following January’s pre-tariff surge, imports have remained low since February compared to post-pandemic volumes

Mill production times for sheet products are holding just above multi-year lows, while plate lead times remain elevated.

Most steel buyers continue to report that mills are open to negotiating spot prices. Negotiation rates have remained high for most of the past three months.

Sheet and plate prices were either flat or modestly lower this week on softer demand and increasing domestic capacity.

Steel Market Update is proud to celebrate its 17th birthday this month.

Domestic mill output remains historically strong, holding near multi-year highs since early June.

Nucor’s weekly consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil was adjusted $10 per short ton (st) lower this week after holding steady last week.

Prices for four of the seven steelmaking raw materials we track were unchanged from late June through the end of July, while two increased and one declined. Collectively, these material prices rose 1% month over month (m/m), but are down 3% compared to three months ago.

Earlier this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events.

US raw steel output rebounded last week, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Mill production remains historically strong, with output at or near a multi-year high since early June.

Drilling activity slowed in the US and increased in Canada last week, according to the latest oil and gas rig count data released by Baker Hughes.

SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices eased this week, both approaching multi-year lows.

Steel mill lead times on sheet products contracted across the board this week compared to early July, while plate production times moderately extended, according to steel buyers responding to this week’s market survey.

More than nine out of every ten steel buyers polled by SMU this week reported that mills are negotiable on new order prices. Negotiation rates have increased in each of our last three surveys following the early-June lull, reaching a record high this week.

The total volume of raw steel produced around the globe fell by 5% from May to June, according to recent data published by the World Steel Association (worldsteel).

Steel prices continued to decline this week across all of the sheet and plate products tracked by SMU, pressured by short lead times and the typical summer slowdown.

Domestic steel mill output edged lower last week, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). While down, production remains historically strong since peaking in early June.

Drilling activity increased in both the US and Canada for the week ended July 18, according to the latest data from Baker Hughes.

Earlier this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to imports and evolving market events.

The volume of finished steel entering the US market remained elevated in May, in line with April figures, according to SMU’s analysis of Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data

US sheet and plate prices were flat or lower as reduced import volumes were offset by so-so demand.

US steel exports rose 10% from April to May but remained low compared to recent years. This came just one month after exports fell to the lowest level recorded in nearly five years.

The volume of raw steel produced by US mills inched higher last week, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). After steadily increasing in April and May, domestic mill output stabilized in early June and has remained historically strong since.

Heating and cooling equipment shipments grew from April to May, according to the latest data released by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI).

US oil and gas drilling activity continued to decline for the 11th consecutive week, while Canadian counts climbed for the sixth week in a row, according to the latest data from Baker Hughes.

SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices moved in opposite directions this week. After rebounding from a near five-year low in late June, Current Sentiment slipped again. At the same time, Future Sentiment climbed to a four-month high. Both indices continue to show optimism among buyers about their company’s chances for success, but suggest there is less confidence in that optimism than earlier in the year.

Mill lead times for sheet products were steady to slightly longer this week compared to our late June market check, while plate lead times contracted, according to steel buyers responding to this week’s market survey.

Domestic mills are more open to talk price on new orders than they were in June, according to most steel buyers responding to our market survey this week. Negotiation rates have recovered from the early-June lull and are now just a few percentage points shy of the high levels seen late last year.