Contributor: Brett Linton

Steel buyers expect prices to keep rising in the near term and report steady-to-improving demand and lean inventories. Imports remain competitive despite risks.

Sheet prices mostly ticked upward again this week on a series of factors long familiar to the market: long lead times, limited spot availability, and solid demand.

US raw steel production increased last week, further recovering from the four-month low seen in early August, according to recently published American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data. Production has been historically strong for most of this year.

Steel buyers remained strongly confident in their companies’ prospects today and in the coming months, according to SMU’s latest market survey. Both of our Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices are holding near multi-year highs and have been historically strong for several months.  

Drilling activity eased in both the US and Canada this week, receding from multi-month highs, according to recently released Baker Hughes rig count data.

Steel mill lead times remained extended on both sheet and plate products this week, according to buyers responding to our latest market survey. Production times have been historically long for most of the summer, remaining at or near multi-year highs across all of the products we track.

Most steel buyers who responded to our market survey this week reported that mills are holding a firm grip on sheet and plate prices. The share of buyers reporting that mills were negotiable fell to the lowest rate seen in almost five years. Negotiation rates for three sheet products are down to multi-year lows.

Architecture firms reported a modest decline in billings in July, with business conditions remaining soft, according to the latest Architecture Billings Index (ABI) release. The report indicates that the broader economy remained mixed and architecture services employment declined for the fourth consecutive month.

Sheet prices and plate prices continued their relentless march higher over the last week as more participants said they were effectively on allocation, especially when it comes to hot-rolled (HR) coil.

Domestic raw steel production rose by 13,000 short tons (st) last week, a marginal recovery from the four-month low set one week prior, according to recently published American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) figures.

Apparent steel supply rose 3% from May to June to the highest rate recorded in over four years, according to recent Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) figures. June’s supply increased to 9.31 million short tons, driven primarily by higher domestic shipments, and partly offset by lower finished imports and increased exports.

Sheet and plate prices either held their ground or increased this week amid what remains an historically tight spot market.

The amount of raw steel produced by US mills declined last week to the lowest rate recorded in over four months, according to recently released American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data. Domestic production has been historically strong for over five months now, recently touching a six-year high.

US steel exports recovered 7% in June, marking the highest monthly rate recorded since January 2025. Despite the recoveries seen over the last six months, trade has been historically weak for over a year and remains weak compared to 2022-2024 volumes.

SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices have been historically strong for several months, indicating that buyers are confident in their companies’ prospects today and in the coming months.

Steel mill lead times held steady on sheet products this week and extended further on plate, according to buyers responding to our latest market survey. Production times remain at or near multi-year highs across all products, roughly three to four weeks longer than they were last summer.

Most steel buyers report that mills are unwilling to budge on new sheet and plate spot order prices this week. Negotiation rates have been low for most of this year, having recently fallen to one of the lowest measures recorded in almost five years.

The amount of raw steel produced by US mills increased last week to the highest rate recorded since early June. Domestic production has been historically strong for over five months now.

Drilling activity increased in both the US and Canada this week, touching new multi-month highs, according to recently released Baker Hughes figures.

Earlier this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events.

SMU’s sheet and plate price indices were steady to higher this week, with all products at multi-year highs.

The total volume of raw steel produced by mills around the globe eased 2% in June, according to worldsteel.

Domestic steel mill output increased last week and remained historically strong, according to recently released American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) figures.

Drilling activity remained at or near multi-month highs in both the US and Canada this week, according to recently released oil and gas rig count figures by Baker Hughes.

SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices indicate that buyers remain confident in their companies’ prospects today and in the near future.

Steel mill lead times have trended upward since last November and now stand at or near multi-year highs for all products.

The majority of steel buyers responding to our market survey this week report that mills are holding a firm grip on prices

Sheet prices continued to grind higher this week on factors familiar to most steel market participants: extremely limited spot availability, long lead times, low inventories, and firm demand.

Total US raw steel mill output declined last week to the lowest rate seen since April, according to the latest American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) figures

Apparent steel supply jumped 8% from April to May to a near four-year high, according to recent Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) figures.