Contributor: Brett Linton

SMU’s price ranges were mixed again this week as the market continues to seek a floor amid industry hopes for a Q4 rebound.

In this Premium analysis we examine North American oil and natural gas prices, drill rig activity, and crude oil stock levels through September. Trends in energy prices and rig counts serve as leading indicators for oil country tubular goods (OCTG) and line pipe demand.

Domestic mill output declined last week, according to the latest data released by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). While down, production remains historically strong, holding near multi-year highs since June.

U.S. Steel has revised its Galvalume coating extras higher effective Nov. 2, 2025. The steelmaker released new extras to customers on Friday, Sept. 12.

Apparent supply totaled 8.88 million short tons (st) in July, down 38,000 st from June and 6% higher than the same month last year

Active rig counts increased in both the US and Canada last week, according to figures released by Baker Hughes. Although rising, US counts continue to hover just above historic lows. Canadian figures remain comparatively healthy, rising to a six-month high this week. Total US rig counts climbed by two week over week (w/w) to 539. […]

Following a 3% decline in June, the amount of steel shipped outside of the US edged up 1% in July to 623,000 short tons. July was the sixth-lowest monthly export rate since the COVID-19 pandemic, and...

Earlier this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events.

Sheet prices were mixed this week as some mills continued to offer significant discounts to larger buyers while others have shifted toward being more disciplined, market participants said.

US steel imports declined for the second consecutive month in July, according to recently finalized US Commerce Department data.

Drilling activity increased in both the US and Canada last week, according to the latest oil and gas rig count data released by Baker Hughes.

SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices ticked higher this week, according to the latest data from our flat-rolled steel survey.

Sheet and plate lead times held steady yet again this week, according to steel buyers responding to our latest market survey, a trend in place since May.

The majority of steel buyers responding to this week’s market survey continue to report that mills are open to negotiating spot prices on sheet and plate products.

SMU’s hot-rolled (HR) coil price held steady this week while prices for other sheet and plate products declined.

Most steelmaking raw material prices we track saw little change across the month of August. Iron ore, pig iron, shredded scrap, busheling scrap, zinc, and aluminum prices all held relatively steady,

Steel Market Update will be taking time off in observance of Labor Day.

Steel prices, end-use demand, inventory levels, tariffs, imports, and evolving market events... what is the steel industry talking about this week?

Steel prices remained largely unchanged this week, staying at or near lows last seen in February. All five sheet and plate products tracked by SMU moved by no more than $5 per short ton (st) from the previous week.

World crude steel output declined for a second straight month in July, falling 2% from June to an estimated 150.1 million metric tons (mt), according to recent data published by the World Steel Association (worldsteel).

Domestic mill output increased last week, according to the latest data released by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Production remains historically strong, holding near multi-year highs since June.

SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices moved in opposing directions this week. Our Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index dropped to one of the lowest levels recorded in over five years, while Future Buyers’ Sentiment inched higher.

Steel buyers report steady lead times for sheet and plate products, a soft-sideways trend we've seen since May.

The majority of steel buyers responding to our market survey this week continue to say that mills are negotiable on new spot order prices. Negotiation rates have remained high since May.

On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events.

All five of SMU's steel sheet and plate price indices declined this week, falling to lows last seen in February.

Total heating and cooling equipment shipments eased from May to June, according to the latest data released by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute.

The amount of finished steel coming into the US market increased 3% from May to June, climbing to one of the highest rates seen in recent years, according to SMU’s analysis of Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data

US steel mills have ramped up output since April, with weekly production increasing in all but four of the past 16 weeks.

Both SMU Sentiment Indices continue to show that buyers remain optimistic for their company’s chances of success, though far less confident than they felt earlier in the year.