Analysis
August 8, 2025
SMU Survey: Modest improvement in Sentiment Indices
Written by Brett Linton
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both ticked higher this week, though they remain only a few points from multi-year lows. Our Current Sentiment Index increased this week after two consecutive declines, while Future Sentiment inched up one point. Both indices continue to show that buyers remain optimistic for their company’s chances of success, though far less confident than they felt earlier in the year.
Every two weeks, we survey thousands of industry executives asking how they rate their company’s chances of success today, as well as three to six months down the road. The results are used to calculate our Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, metrics we have tracked since our inception.
Current Sentiment
SMU’s Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index rose four points this week to +36 (Figure 1). While up, this remains one of the lower readings seen in recent months, just six points higher than mid-June’s five-year low of +30. Prior to this week, Sentiment had consistently held at or below year-ago levels since March. Year-to-date Sentiment has averaged +43 across the first eight months of this year. This time last year it was slightly lower at +34.
Future Sentiment
Following the nine-point drop recorded in late July, Future Sentiment recovered one point this week to +50 (Figure 2). Prior to our last two surveys, Future Sentiment had shown modest improvement for two months, recovering from the near-three-year low of +46 in May. It has remained at or below 2024 levels since March. Future Sentiment has averaged +56 so far this year and was considerably higher one year ago at +64.
What SMU survey respondents had to say:
“Market dynamics are good right now.”
“We remain optimistic a trade deal between the US and Canada will be finalized by the end of September or October thereby stabilizing the market.”
“Customers are ordering only what is needed, making quantities smaller than usual.”
“Belt-tightening is bad for our core business.”
“With the current price for steel, if I cannot pass through real increases, I’d have to absorb 3.4% higher costs. That won’t put me out of business but does hurt.”
“Too much uncertainty and future economic activity will potentially be weak.”
“Just too much unknown out there. Everyone has a murky crystal ball, myself included.”
“We don’t see much changing this year.”
Sentiment trends
These Sentiment Indices can be analyzed on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis to eliminate survey-to-survey variation and highlight trends.
The Current Sentiment 3MMA increased this week to +35.20, just one-tenth of a point higher than the near-five-year low recorded in late July (Figure 3, left). Recall that back in April the 3MMA had reached a nine-month high of +53.97 after trending upwards since the beginning of the year.
The Future Sentiment 3MMA also marginally improved this week, rising less than one point to +50.97. Compare this to the late June 3MMA of +50.11, which was the lowest measure seen since late 2020 (Figure 3, right).
About the SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index
The SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index measures the attitude of buyers and sellers of flat-rolled steel products in North America. It is a proprietary product developed by Steel Market Update for the North American steel industry. Tracking steel buyers’ sentiment is helpful in predicting their future behavior. View our methodology here. If you would like to participate in our survey, please contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.
