SMU Data and Models
Lead Times Not Yet Impacted by Price Announcements
Written by John Packard
March 20, 2014
Steel Market Update began our latest analysis of the flat rolled steel market on Monday of this week. We found mill lead times remained very similar to those reported at the beginning of March. The ArcelorMittal flat rolled steel price announcement was not made until late Monday afternoon and by then 50 percent of the responses to our survey had already been made.
We anticipate there will be changes to lead times in our next survey which will begin on April 1st. Until then, we found lead times to have remained essentially unchanged from what was collected at the beginning of March.
Hot rolled lead times averaged 3.89 weeks down only slightly from 3.94 weeks at the beginning of the month. However, when compared to the same time last year, lead times are slightly longer compared to the 3.14 months posted during mid-March 2013.
Cold rolled lead times also remained essentially at 6 weeks. The 5.96 weeks posted this week was down only a fraction from the 6.08 weeks measured two weeks ago. As with hot rolled, cold rolled lead times are over one week longer than the 4.82 weeks posted for mid-March 2013.
As with the other products both galvanized and Galvalume (coated products) lead times remained fairly stable to the beginning of the month but longer than one year ago. Galvanized lead times averaged 6.0 weeks (5.88 weeks at the beginning of March) and Galvalume averaged 6.67 weeks versus 6.82 weeks at the beginning of the month.
Below is our table providing data since the beginning of this calendar year as well as where lead times were one year ago.
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Steel Demand Index still lags
The Steel Demand Index now stands at 42, up from 38.5 in early July, but off from a four-year high of 65.0 in late February.
SMU Price Ranges: Sheet prices tick lower, but floor remains high vs. ’24
Sheet prices slipped again this week amid discounting from certain mills and ongoing concerns about demand.
SMU Survey: Steel Buyer Sentiment Indices soften
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices eased this week, both approaching multi-year lows.
SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times remain short
Steel mill lead times on sheet products contracted across the board this week compared to early July, while plate production times moderately extended, according to steel buyers responding to this week’s market survey.