Final Thoughts

March 26, 2014

When I last wrote my final thoughts, I had just discovered that my passport had expired ten days earlier and I was scheduled to speak to the Toronto Steel Buyers & Associates dinner in Canada the following day. My efforts to have the passport renewed in Atlanta were rebuffed and I was down to my last hope – the Passport Services office in Detroit.

On Wednesday, I flew to Detroit and proceeded to the U.S. government offices in downtown Detroit. I had managed to secure a 12:30 appointment to plead my case but, in an effort to expedite the process I arrived about an hour early. I happen to ride up the elevator with one of the security officers attached to Passport Services and we chatted in the elevator about why I was there and what I was trying to accomplish. He introduced me to the next guard who was standing between me and my ability to get a new passport. He asked if I had an appointment which I happily told him that I did and he responded I would not be allowed in until the appointed time – another hour away.

From around the corner I head the voice of the guard with whom I had shared the elevator, “Let him in.” The guard at the door told me “Don’t tell them you have an appointment…” and let me pass.

To make a long story short – the Detroit Passport Services office was able to get me through the process in about two hours and I left with just enough time to make it to my dinner appointment with the Toronto Steel Buyers group.

I want to thank the group for their hospitality. They put on a great dinner and we had, I think, a good discussion on a number of topics of importance to the steel community.

As I mentioned in the first article in this issue – I am not bearish on the market at this point in time. We have seen our SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index at some of the highest (most optimistic) levels on both our current and future Sentiment Indices.

We are comfortable that demand is improving (baring anything out of the ordinary with our politicians) and we believe the second half 2014 will see an improving non-residential construction market. The wheels are beginning to turn – at least within the private sector.

We still have an 11-year old automotive fleet out there and people will continue to buy cars at a decent pace as the year progresses.

And we have this “cloud” hanging over the industry called foreign imports. My gut feel is something will happen.

So, no – I am not negative on the industry at this point in time. That is my opinion and I welcome yours – John@SteelMarketUpdate.com

Earlier today (Thursday) I visited Severstal Dearborn to go over the details of our upcoming Steel 101 workshop and the tour of their fully integrated steel mill. Everything is under control and, as before, we anticipate this will be a very special workshop and tour for our attendees. Space is limited and we added a number of new attendees this afternoon. We are approximately 75 percent full and I expect the class to sell out well before the middle of April. If you are at all interested in attending our May workshop now would be a good time to act. You can do so online or you can contact our offices at: 800-432-3475.

A note to the faint-hearted or those who do not like heights – there is climbing of catwalks high above the mill floor involved with the tour.

As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.

John Packard, Publisher