Final Thoughts: Are we nearing peak steel market tightness?
Could we see prices continue to inch higher, plateau, and then start to slide back? A lot hinges on whether and how long it takes mills to catch up on orders.
Could we see prices continue to inch higher, plateau, and then start to slide back? A lot hinges on whether and how long it takes mills to catch up on orders.
With global capacity projected to increase by 138 million mt by 2028, the gap between capacity and demand will continue to grow over the next three years. And that assumes the conflict in Iran does not stifle global demand.
CR imports from Germany, Italy, and Japan on a landed basis remain much more expensive than domestic product. But South Korean imports remain competitive, in theory, even with the 50% Section 232 tariff.
AMU's March survey results show lead times remaining extended as supply tightness persists, even as import competitiveness declines and logistics costs increase.
APAC steel prices are expected to rise due to high energy and freight costs stemming from the Middle East conflict. Imports will remain subdued in the EU due to rising freight rates but are expected to pick up marginally in the USA.
Most steel buyers see prices continuing to inch higher on stable or improving demand. But some are concerned higher energy prices stemming for the Iran war could dent the overall economy.
The US Department of Commerce has launched two trade investigations to determine if certain corrosion-resistant (CORE) steel imports are being transshipped through Indonesia to avoid paying anti-dumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVDs).
The price gap between US hot-rolled coil (HR) and landed offshore product remained within a tight band this week. The dynamic continues as both stateside and offshore prices have trended higher.
Apparent steel supply increased from December to January, but remains on the low side compared to recent years.
The UK will reduce steel import quotas and raise outside caps to 50%.
Steel imports remained close to multi-year lows in January and February, according to US Commerce Department data released this week.
The price gap between US hot-rolled coil (HR) and landed offshore product widened this week, as stateside tags were little changed.
An administrative review of the anti-dumping duty (AD) order on heavy-walled rectangular pipe and tube from Mexico has found evidence of continued dumping by Mexican companies.
Prices are moving up and lead times moving. And most people expect them to continue to do so for a little while longer, according to our latest survey results. But there is one big wildcard: the Iran war.
Plate sources say they’re welcoming imports as domestic mill delivery delays, extended lead times, and climbing prices make fully adopting US-produced plate products unrealistic.
Cold-rolled (CR) coil prices ticked up in the US this week, matching a similar trend seen in most offshore markets as well.
Mexico’s Secretary of Economy is conducting ‘Operation Clean-Up,” inspecting suspicious steel companies to verify compliance with rules of origin.
The price gap between US hot-rolled coil (HR) and landed offshore product tightened this week, as stateside tags continue to rise.
CVDs and anti-dumping duties matter when importing steel. Korea often offers very competitive import rates. The importer of record is responsible for paying any ADs, CVDs, or tariffs.
Let’s say the going price for HR is around $1,000/st. Want to place a 1,000-ton spot order at that price? Good luck. It probably won’t be easy.
Sources in the domestic hot- and cold-rolled coil market said they are beginning to feel prices creeping up this week.
December supply increased 7% from November to the third-lowest monthly rate of the year.
The price gap between US hot-rolled coil (HR/HRC) and landed offshore product remained largely flat again this week, as price movements stateside and abroad mirrored each other.
With domestic steel prices rising steadily and mill lead times pushing out, import offers are becoming more attractive to US buyers.
Even folks who had been firmly in what I’ll call the “February peak” camp now seem to agree that sheet and plate prices could move higher for longer than they anticipated.
Steel imports slowed further in December and January to some of the lowest volumes recorded in recent years.
The US Department of Commerce is adjusting the countervailing duties (CVDs) on steel plate imports from Korea.
Earlier this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events.
The price gap between US hot-rolled coil (HR/HRC) and landed offshore product was largely flat this week, as price movements stateside and abroad mirrored each other. Still, the premium for US hot band over imports has remained in a relatively tight band since early December.
I’m going to play devil’s advocate for a narrative that has become the consensus for much of the US steel market. You know how it goes. Domestic steel prices will continue to go up despite uneven demand thanks to low supplies stemming in large part from tariffs and limited import competition. That's been the case for months now. Will it continue to be?