SMU Data and Models
March at a Glance
Written by John Packard
April 1, 2014
Flat rolled steel pricing momentum reversed course due to the price increase announcement led by ArcelorMittal and followed by virtually all of the domestic and Canadian steel mills. We moved the SMU Price Momentum Indicator first to Neutral and then a week later to Higher in response to the increase announcements and the fact that the mills began collecting higher prices on flat rolled steels.
The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index last measured in mid-March was +40 which is well within the optimistic range of our Index.
Hot rolled prices averaged $626 per ton for the month which was $1 per ton higher than the CRU average of $625 per ton. We are adding a new line item to our monthly recap. The line item is noted as Other Contract Index Platts so our readers can compare CRU, Platts and SMU with CRU and Platts now being used as contract adjustment vehicles. Platts average for HRC for the month was $643 per ton, $18 per ton higher than CRU and $17 per ton higher than SMU.
Scrap prices were down in the Chicago area markets. Iron ore spot pricing in China was also down although the commodity has been bouncing back over the past few days.
SMU service center inventories stood at 2.25 months as of mid-March while MSCI had their inventories at 2.3 months on a seasonally adjusted basis as of the end of February.
Auto sales have been lower than originally forecast at 15.3 million units (annualized) at the end of February. Projections are for sales closer to 16.5 million units during the full calendar year.
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Scrap Survey: Current and Future Sentiment tick down
SMU’s Current Sentiment Index for scrap decreased this month, a move mirrored by our Future Sentiment Index, according to the latest data from our ferrous scrap survey.
SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment slips again, future outlook improves
Each of our Sentiment Indices continues to reflect that steel buyers are positive about their present and future business prospects, though that confidence has eased considerably compared to the beginning of the year.
SMU scrap market survey results now available
SMU’s October ferrous scrap market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.
SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.
SMU Survey: Sheet and plate lead times stabilize
Sheet and plate lead times saw minor shifts this week, according to SMU’s latest market survey. Sheet times have inched up over the last month but remain within days of multi-year lows, as they have since May. Plate lead times have bobbed within a tight range for months, hovering roughly a week longer than this time last year.