March TranSystems Transportation Activity Index Update, April 3, 2014

The composite reading across all transportation modes came in again at 59.2, flat against February of this year. We double-checked every figure to ensure that there wasn’t a data mistake – and that’s an accurate reading. However, the March index was 2.6 points higher than March of 2013, an accelerating trend and faster rate of growth against figures from 2013 than we saw in January and February. March was a much clearer month for weather – although there were still some problems in some areas. Manufacturing activity was fairly consistent month over month as well, so the general conditions and industries that typically push shipment volumes saw a similar flat month-over-month pattern.

The rail sector was up the most month-over-month among all modes. It came in up .3 points over February and was 2.2 points higher than this time last year. Focusing on the year-to-date figures from the Association of American Railroads, we can see that most of the major categories were still mixed for the year. Total carloads are now up by .4%, other primary commodity categories include coal shipments (-1.2%), Grains (+13.2%), intermodal (+3.0%), Nonmetallic minerals and products (+2.3%), motor vehicles and parts (-4.5%), petroleum and petroleum products (+6.9%), and forest products (-.4%).

Trucking was down just slightly against February of this year (falling just .1 point), but was up 2.7 points over March of 2013. Trucking was still experiencing strong demand and tight capacity conditions across the broader national spectrum. We saw that the Producer Price Index was setting all-time highs last month for LTL and near all-time highs for truckload shipments. Weather related events helped to keep capacity displaced – which pushed prices higher generally. What we will have to wait and see is how robust capacity and demand remain when winter weather conditions finally subside in April.

Air cargo fell right in line with other modes. Month-over-month it was down just slightly by .2 points. But, against March of last year, air cargo was up 3 full points. Tighter inventory control efforts on behalf of many companies and an increase in online purchases are likely continuing to help keep levels higher. Capacity controls at the airline level will also help to keep prices elevated and yields stronger.

Maritime came in at 52.4, just .1 point higher than February of this year. Ocean shipping was also 2.8 points higher than it was at this time last year. But, the Baltic Dry Index has been tailing off throughout the month and is showing a bit of weakness in the global maritime sector. Container traffic is steady and prices are strengthening, but much of that is due to a resumption of activity after the Chinese New Year holidays and some contraction in industry capacity.

The TranSystems Transportation Activity Index is published by TranSystems, a consulting firm providing solutions for transportation. The TranSystems Transportation Activity Index tracks and gathers in one place key and timely measures of transportation activity across all the sectors – freight rail, passenger rail, trucking, air cargo and air passenger, ports and harbors, manufacturing and the supply chain, and the state and Federal departments of transportation. That data is allied with key economic, demographic and production data that drive or affect the movements of goods and people. The TTAI is issued once a week and the accompanying commentary weighs and draws meaning from the numbers; identifies trends, patterns or inconsistencies; provides context and history; and does not hesitate to offer forecasts for both the transportation economy and the larger economy.