Prices
Apparent Supply of Sheet and Strip Products through March 2014
Written by Peter Wright
May 9, 2014
Apparent supply is defined as domestic mill shipments to domestic locations plus imports. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce.
The three month moving average of the total tonnage of sheet and strip supply in the 1st quarter was 4,603,548 tons, up from 4,426,649 tons per month in Q4 2013, an increase of 4.0 percent. Compared to Q1 2013 and Q1 2012 supply was higher by 5.2 percent and 1.2 percent respectively. Table 1 shows the performance by product over three, twelve and twenty four month periods. The only products having negative growth in Q1 14 / Q4 13 were electro-galvanized and other metallic coated (mainly Galvalume.) Year over year hot band grew by 5.7 percent, cold rolled by 2.9 percent and HGD by 7.2 percent.
Figure 1 shows the long term supply picture for the three major sheet and strip products, HR, CR and HDG since January 2006. No distinctive trends are evident in the last 18 months. Hot rolled has been erratic and stuck in the range 2.083 million tons (Oct 2011) to 1.739 million tons (Sept 2012) for almost 2.5 years. The three months through March averaged 2.028 million tons / month. Cold rolled has been fairly flat for over 3.5 years living in the range 701 thousand tons / month, (Nov 2010) to 970 tons / month, (May 2012). Three months through March averaged 935 thousand tons / month. HDG had a strong bump in H1 2012, declined in H2 2012 and has been gradually improving for 14 months. HDG in three months through March averaged 1.378 million tons / month.
Supply is both domestic shipments plus imports. The supply of sheet and strip products was up by 5.2 percent in Q1 year / year as mentioned above but mill shipments were actually down by 0.5 percent in the same time frame. We now have import data through April and the total tonnage of sheet and strip imports in three months through April was up by 33.6 percent year over year therefore absorbed all the supply growth and then some. Imports of the three major products, hot band, cold rolled and HDG in three months through April y / y were up by 44.8 percent, 33.5 percent and 30.5 percent, respectively (Table 2).
Peter Wright
Read more from Peter WrightLatest in Prices
SMU Survey: Mills less negotiable on spot prices
Most steel buyers responding to our market survey this week reported that domestic mills are considerably less willing to talk price on sheet and plate products than they were in recent weeks.
Price gap between US HRC, most imports narrows slightly
In dollar-per-ton terms, US product is on average $141/st less than landed import prices (inclusive of the 50% tariff). That’s down from $148/st last week.
SMU price ranges: Sheet ticks higher, plate stable
Sheet steel indices increased across the board this week, while plate prices held steady. All five of SMU’s price indices are higher than they were two weeks ago, and all but one are above levels recorded four weeks ago.
Nucor lifts HR spot price by $10/ton
Nucor has raised its weekly spot list price on hot-rolled coil by $10 per short ton (st) after keeping it unchanged since Aug. 25.
Atlas Tube up $50/ton following NLMK USA sheet price hike
Atlas Tube, in a leading move, said it aims to increase prices for mechanical tubing, hollow structural sections (HSS), and piling products by at least $50 per short ton (st).