Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
July 30, 2014
Today is the last day of July. During the past 30 days or so we have been giving our Executive Level subscribers (our normal newsletter members) access to Premium Level content and supplemental newsletters/articles. There are two Premium articles in tonight’s newsletter and you can recognize them as we have put a premium logo in the article. On the website we use that same premium logo in the scrolling section to identify premium articles to our Premium Level members.
We hope you have taken some time to review the website – especially the information under the “Analysis” tab – and checked out the Premium data such as our SMU Survey Results, Key Market Indicators, Imports by Product, Port & Country, etc.
We intend to discontinue access to the Premium content sometime over the weekend or, at the latest, first thing on Monday morning. If you would like to upgrade your existing level to Premium please let us know. The price difference is $1995 for Premium vs. $995 for Executive for a single individual membership. We are here to answer any questions you might have: 800-432-3475 or, info@SteelMarketUpdate.com
On Friday, Steel Market Update, Inc. will begin our seventh (7th) year as a company. I began writing the newsletter in 2004 for my steel customers when I represented the conversion steel mill, Winner Steel (now part of NLMK USA). In 2008 I began offering the newsletter as a subscription service. SMU was quite fortunate to have a loyal group of former steel customers combined with a number of companies who had become interested in our product and we managed to get enough customers on board prior to the market crashing at the end of September 2008. I want to take a moment to thank each and every one of our customers who joined us in August and September 2008 and allowed us the time to get our feet off the ground and to grow.
We have had many companies join SMU over the past six years which has allowed me to take a one person company to the 6 full time and 4 part time employees/instructors that we currently have. We are still a small company battling against the likes of McGraw-Hill and other large publishing organizations. Sometimes I think of SMU as the Little Engine That Could… We just keep on chugging and trying to do our best for our customers. Thank you to each and everyone of you.
It’s always nice to be recognized for the effort we put into Steel Market Update. I received this note in an email from a customer I have never met:
“John, I am a Director of Purchasing at the largest farm and ranch manufacturer in North America; Priefert MFG, in Mount Pleasant, TX. I also buy all of our steel coils; over 5,000 tons a month. I have tried a number of your competitors regarding steel market analysis/news; Steel Orbis, AMM, Platts SBB, etc. Wanted to let you know I truly enjoy how you and your staff report the news affecting steel. Great blogs, timely reporting, exceptional newsletters. Top Notch in my book John, keep up the great work.
“Hope to meet you at the Steel Summit.” The note was signed by Chris Shipp, Director of Purchasing for Prefiert Manufacturing Inc.
We appreciate the kind words and we especially appreciate those of you who go out of your way to recommend our newsletter, website and Events (Steel 101, Managing Price Risk & Steel Summit Conference) to others within the steel industry.
The past six years have been a lot of work and a whole lot of fun for all of us here at Steel Market Update.
As always and forever your business has helped us grow and I hope get better and your business is truly appreciated.
John Packard, Publisher
Hopefully, I will see you in Atlanta for our Steel Summit Conference and if not you one of your friends…
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?