Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
December 3, 2014
There has been a fair amount of interest being generated regarding our next Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals workshop which will be held in Mount Pleasant, South Carolina on January 20 & 21, 2015. If you go to our website: www.SteelMarketUpdate.com and click on the Steel 101 link in the Events box in the top right hand side of our Home Page, it will take you to the home page for the workshop. There you will see a number of tabs (Objectives, Schedule, Instructors, Pricing, Video & Registration) which should answer most questions you might have. The hotel we are using is the Charleston Harbor Resort & Marina and the Nucor Berkeley mill is located about 30 minutes from the hotel. We will take a bus from the hotel to the mill for a tour which is part of our program.
If you have any questions we are available at: 800-432-3475 or by email: info@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
A note to those attending the HARDI conference which begins this weekend I will be speaking to the Sheet Metal Market Forum on Sunday (2:00 PM to 3:15 PM). If you would like to have a private meeting with me during the conference please send me an email: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com or you can reach me on my cell phone: 770-596-6268. I am not leaving the conference until Tuesday and will return to my office on Wednesday…
At the end of next week Steel Market Update will be conducting our first onsite Sales Training Program for a service center located in Louisiana. If you are interested in learning more about this special program or any other possible special training programs that we can do with your company please contact me: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
A note to our Premium level members – we should have the new survey Power Point presentation on our website by early on Friday afternoon. You do need to be logged into the website as a Premium user in order to find the Latest Survey Results (and Survey Results History) tabs which are located under the Analysis tab to Survey Results… If you are not a Premium member you are not able to see a number of the Premium only content tabs. If you would like to learn more about Premium how much it costs, multiple users, etc. please contact our office: 800-432-3475 or info@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
I want to welcome our newest members to the Steel Market Update community. I encourage our readers to interact with us and advise if you have questions, comments or suggestions. You are welcome to send comments to me directly at: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Many of our articles and special industry analysis comes from suggestions from our readers.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?