SMU Data and Models
January 2015 Steel Data at a Glance
Written by John Packard
February 1, 2015
SMU Price Momentum Indicator has been stuck pointing lower for a number of months, ended the month of January as it did at the end of November and December.
We saw SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index improve by +1 point in January over the month of December. However, when looking at Sentiment based on a three month moving average (3MMA) we saw January slip to +55.33, down from December’s 3MMA of +57.5.
Sentiment measures how buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful in the current market environment. We also measure Sentiment out 3 to 6 months into the future. The month of January ended with Future Sentiment at +62, down from +70 at the beginning of the month.
Both Sentiment numbers are positive (+) and well within the optimistic range of our index.
January hot rolled averaged $565 per ton as compared to $577 per ton (CRU) and $564 per ton (Platts).
Scrap prices were up slightly in the Midwest.
Zinc prices averaged $0.9538 per pound. Zinc pricing has fallen in each of the past three months. Aluminum has also fallen in each of the last three months.
Rig counts, one of the keys the industry is watching very carefully due to the drop in oil prices and the impact the lower rig count has on OCTG, line pipe and other products made with hot rolled or plate, dropped to 1543 rigs (USA) by the end of January. This is down 207 rigs just from the beginning of the month.
Another key to watch is MSCI (service center) inventories. The Metal Service Center Institute reported flat rolled at 3.1 months (not seasonally adjusted). More importantly for SMU is our analysis which put the domestic distributors carrying inventories in an Apparent Excess of 1.2 million tons of flat rolled steel.
A third problematic number for the domestic steel mills has been foreign steel imports which reached 3.9 million net tons in September, 4.441 million net tons in November and 9.637 million tons in December. A note to our readers: January appears will exceed September and could well exceed 4.0 million net tons. Not a good omen for the beginning of 2015…
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models
Survey says: Tariff whiplash replay activated
If you’re feeling a sudden jerk and a case of tariff whiplash coming on, you’re not alone.
SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Past survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if […]
SMU Survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment sinks to near pandemic levels
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices moved in opposing directions this week. Our Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index sharply fell to one of the lowest levels recorded in five years, while Future Buyers’ Sentiment marginally improved.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times tick higher after late-May lows
All five of the averages for sheet and plate mill lead times tracked by SMU extended moderately this week, according to buyers responding to our latest market survey.
SMU Survey: Mills less negotiable on sheet prices, buyers say
Most steel buyers responding to our market survey this week reported that domestic mills are considerably less willing to talk price on sheet products than they were in recent weeks, but remain open to bargain on plate prices.