SMU Data and Models
April 2015 Steel Data at a Glance
Written by John Packard
April 30, 2015
Today is the final day of April and, as is our habit, we will review much of the critical data reviewed or created during the month.
SMU Price Momentum Indicator remained at Neutral where it had been for the entire month. SMU has been forecasting a change in the momentum pushing prices from lower to either sideways or higher. Now that the domestic mills have announced price increases we will watch if the flow of orders improves and if it will result in higher prices from here.
SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Indexes, both current and future, remained entrenched in the optimistic range of our Index. However, as you can see from the table below, both indexes and our 3 month moving average have been slipping over the past three months. The movement isn’t enough to cause concern, at least not yet.
Hot rolled prices averaged $449 per ton for the month. However, looking at the four weekly price averages the movement in pricing was modest at $15 per ton. The CRU averaged $448 per ton while Platts tied SMU at $449.
Zinc prices rose over the course of the month ending up at $1.0441 per pound. Aluminum rose as well and finished the month at $0.8271 per pound.
Iron ore is up in China ending the month at $57.8 per dry metric ton (62% Fe fines in China).
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment tumbles as caution increases
SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices resumed their downward trend this week, erasing the modest recovery seen two weeks ago.
Service centers: Mill orders down further in April
SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) declined for a second straight month in April after repeated gains at the start of the year, according to our latest service center inventories data.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times edge lower
Sheet and plate lead times declined across the board this week, according to buyers responding to the latest SMU market survey. While our lead time ranges were unchanged compared to mid-April levels, average production times for each steel product we measure have declined from they were two weeks ago.
SMU Survey: Most buyers say price negotiations back on the table
Domestic mills are largely negotiable on spot prices, according to the majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey.
SMU Scrap Survey: Current, Future Sentiment Indices log declines
However, in a month plagued by tariff and economic uncertainty, both current and near-term outlooks for our scrap survey respondents remained surprisingly optimistic.