AMU
December 19, 2025
Written by Greg Wittbecker
This piece was first published by SMU’s nonferrous sister publication, Aluminum Market Update. To learn about AMU, visit their website or sign up for a free trial.
As we look ahead to 2026, many are asking the question: “What should I hedge?”
Kibar Americas said production has started at its aluminum plant in Fairmont, W.Va., where it will manufacture products for the HVAC, packaging, automotive and industrial sectors.
China is bumping up against its official primary production capacity limit of 45.3 million metric tons/year, but production can still increase through “capacity creep.”
Automotive aluminum demand is rising as extrusions, sheet, and castings gain ground across vehicle applications and powertrains.
Recycler demand increased while fewer respondents reported sufficient obsolete scrap, even as inventory drawdowns remained widespread.
On July 9, Aluminum Market Update published “Did aluminum markets price in peace too soon?” The article used data and events through July 8 to test whether falling prices and light financial participation had moved ahead of conditions around the Strait of Hormuz. A month later, LME aluminum positioning offers a useful checkpoint on how that trade played out.